気候変動による農業食品産業への 影響について懸念が高まる中、ワイン生産の状況も一変する可能性があるという、新たな研究結果が発表された。

気温の上昇や降雨量の変化による影響は、すでに出始めているとされる。『米国科学アカデミー紀要』に4月8日付けで発表された研究結果では、南仏やイタリアのトスカーナ州など地中海におけるブドウの名産地が、以前ほど良質のブドウを生み出せない土地になり始めていると報告されている。

この研究は、国際環境NGOであるコンサベーション・インターナショナル(CI)と環境防衛基金(Environmental Defense Fund:EDF)が実施したもの。研究論文の主執筆者であるリー・ハンナ博士は、「結果の数値に衝撃を受けた」と話している。

研究結果によると、主なワイン生産地でのブドウ栽培に適した土地は、2050年までに25%から73%減少すると予測されている。より高地に移動を迫られる生産者が出てくる可能性もあり、その場合は移動先の野生動物に悪影響を与える恐れがある。

同じ場所で栽培を続ける場合でも、生産レベルを維持するために灌漑(かんがい)技術を用いる場合は、淡水の保護に関する問題が生じる可能性がある、とも指摘されている。

その一方で、ワインの生産に適した場所も新たに生まれている。米ニュージャージー州もその1つだ。昨年のワイン鑑定会「ジャッジメント・オブ・プリンストン」では、「アメリカの脇の下」と呼ばれるほど悪名高いこの州のワインが、フランス産の有名ワインと互角の勝負をして、業界のプロを驚かせた

研究結果によれば、今後イエローストーン国立公園の周辺や中国中部の山々も、ブドウ栽培に適した場所になっていくという。しかしそれは同時に、その土地の野生動物を脅かすことにもつながる。例えば中国でブドウ栽培向けの新天地として期待される場所は、主にジャイアントパンダの生息地でもある。

近年、中国のワイン消費量は飛躍的に増加している。2013年初めに『ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル』紙が報じたところによると、2012年の中国でのワインの売上は約410億ドルで、昨年より20%多かったという。

以下は、「気候変動のワイン生産への影響」を説明するEDFの動画。地図上の赤色は、現在ブドウ生産に適しているが、2050年までに不適になる地域。緑色は2050年でも引き続き適している地域。青色は、2050年までにブドウ生産に新しく適するようになる地域。

[US版で2013年4月8日に掲載した記事を翻訳しました]
[Rachel Tepper 日本語版:兵藤説子/ガリレオ]

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  • Andorra, 33.84 liters per person

    No, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/andorra/" target="_hplink">Andorra</a> was not a character on “Bewitched,” it’s a principality tucked in between <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/" target="_hplink">France</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/spain" target="_hplink">Spain</a> in the Pyrenees mountains. Surprisingly, Andorra is only the sixth smallest nation in Europe, but it’s a powerhouse in tourism. This tiny land of about 85,000 inhabitants hosts a mind-blowing 10 million tourists a year, which no doubt helps to beef up their wine consumption. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/stephen_downes/5580649910/" target="_hplink">Stephen Downes</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Slovenia, 36.40 liters per person

    It’s a bit surprising to find <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/slovenia/" target="_hplink">Slovenia</a> so low on this list. Sharing borders with <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/italy/" target="_hplink">Italy</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/austria/" target="_hplink">Austria</a>, Slovenia has a long history of wine production and a decidedly advanced lifestyle that would seem to support a bit more vigorous consumption of the juice of the grape. Slovenia is also a popular tourist destination, though it pales in comparison with Andorra as far as numbers go. The Alps, Prealps and wine producing regions around the city of Maribor all are particularly popular with fellow European travelers. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/pjh/131576597/" target="_hplink">phault</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Denmark, 35.09 liters per person

    The Danes are well known as enthusiastic drinkers, and the fact that their wine purchases increased by over 27 percent between 2007 and 2011 certainly supports that impression. It’s cold in <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/denmark/" target="_hplink">Denmark</a> and winters are long, which helps to keep the wine flowing, but you have to think about how much of Denmark’s wine consumption is altered by what goes on in the Faroe Islands and Greenland, both integral parts of the Kingdom of Denmark. I’ll have to look into that, but I’m betting the folks on the continent have a wee bit higher rate of consumption than those living thousands of kilometers by sea from the world’s best vineyards. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/question_everything/5007515211/" target="_hplink">Let Ideas Compete</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Turks & Caicos, 37.88 liters per person

    I know, I didn’t believe it either, but there they are. <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/turks-and-caicos-islands/" target="_hplink">The Turks & Caicos</a>, those British islands in the <a href="http://www.snooth.com/articles/the-caribbean-on-sale/" target="_hplink">Caribbean</a>. While the landmass of these archipelagos might be just a few square kilometers smaller than that of Andorra, its population is barely more than half at 45,000. Add in several hundred thousand tourists a year and something still doesn’t seem to add up here. Purchases on the islands have risen almost 25 percent since 2007. Maybe the island just had to restock its bar or something, because on the face of it, there is no reason Turks & Caicos should be making this list. I think it’s time for some investigative journalism! Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/matt_hintsa/3355672676/" target="_hplink">matt.hintsa</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Switzerland, 38.20 liters per person

    Yes, tourism and big money are the keys to <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/switzerland/" target="_hplink">Switzerland</a>’s success. That and neutrality of course. The Swiss lie in the center of Europe, surrounded by the best vineyards on earth all virtually within a day’s travel. You would think with so many treasures at their doorstep that they would indulge a bit more. Is it that Swiss sense of composure we’re seeing in these figures? Or their frugality? I wonder how much wine got trucked back in the trunks of Swiss vehicles from, say, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/italy/tuscany/brunello-di-montalcino/" target="_hplink">Brunello</a>, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/burgundy/cote-dor/cote-de-beaune/beaune/" target="_hplink">Beaune</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/bordeaux/" target="_hplink">Bordeaux</a> and was missed by this census? Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/nfrhtp/5335638730/" target="_hplink">Nfrhtp</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Portugal, 41.81 liters per person

    <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/portugal/" target="_hplink">Portugal</a> is like the lost European wine country. It’s peppered with vineyards and the wines are fabulous, whether we’re talking about a light little <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/portugal/vinho-verde/" target="_hplink">Vinho Verde</a> or something substantial from <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/portugal/oporto/" target="_hplink">Oporto</a>. With so many wines to choose from and a cuisine that draws on the best of land and the county’s extensive coast, it’s not surprising that wine continues to play an important role in the Portuguese lifestyle. Incidentally, while <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/italy/" target="_hplink">Italy</a> consumes more wine per person than Portugal, the Portuguese consume more alcohol per person from wine. They consume 6.65 liters of alcohol from wine as opposed to the Italians’ 6.38. With all that <a href="http://www.snooth.com/wines/port/1/0/" target="_hplink">Port</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/wines/madeira/1/0/" target="_hplink">Madeira</a>, it’s easy to see why. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ferlomu/4776401875/" target="_hplink">ferlomu</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Italy, 42.15 liters per person

    That brings us to <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/italy/" target="_hplink">Italy</a>, once the world’s wine consumption leader with every person of age averaging some 70 plus liters per year. Prosperity, modernization and drunk driving laws have all conspired to push that down to a still impressive level. Of course, tourism (some 43 million plus visitors a year) is a big part of Italy’s economy, so one would think that is taken into account here. This leaves me thinking that maybe everything is not as it seems here. Could the Italians be supplementing their purchases with some that are not being properly tracked? I’d be shocked, shocked I tell you! How could that possibly happen in the world’s number one wine producing country? Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/lyng883/132635128/" target="_hplink">lyng883</a> via Flickr/cc

  • France, 45.70 liters per person

    <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/" target="_hplink">France</a> and Italy have historically swapped the various titles of world’s largest producer or consumer of wine over the year, but as of late, the French seem to be edging out their southern neighbor in the consumption end of things. France is what pops to mind when you think of fine wine. The famous names are endless, coming from <a href="http://www.snooth.com/regions/france/bordeaux" target="_hplink">Bordeaux</a>, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/regions/france/burgundy" target="_hplink">Burgundy</a>, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/regions/france/alsace" target="_hplink">Alsace</a>, the <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/rhone/" target="_hplink">Rhone</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/champagne/" target="_hplink">Champagne</a>. There is no other country with so many wines that serve as global benchmarks. One would think that pride plays a small but significant role in France’s robust consumption, and even though purchases of wines have drifted lower, they remain the top purchasers in Europe, with a few small exceptions. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/calips96/258782117/" target="_hplink">calips96</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Luxembourg, 52.46 liters per person

    Like <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/germany/luxembourg/" target="_hplink">Luxembourg</a>, for example. Half a million people call Luxembourg home, the country strategically placed between <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/france/" target="_hplink">France</a>, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/belgium/" target="_hplink">Belgium</a> and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/germany/" target="_hplink">Germany</a>. This is a banking capital of Europe with the highest per capita income in the world, so not only are they drinking a lot, they are probably drinking a lot better than you or me! This makes one think that maybe not all of the wine sold in Luxembourg gets consumed in Luxembourg. Could this be a case of illegal imports by visiting neighbors? More investigation is required. I volunteer for the tour of European micro-nations. Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/jepoirrier/270611433/" target="_hplink">jepoirrier</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Norfolk Island, 54.50 liters per person

    Now this might be our weirdest entry on the list, but don’t hold your breath. <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/norfolk-island/" target="_hplink">Norfolk Island</a> isn’t even a country, it’s part of <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/australia/" target="_hplink">Australia</a>. You really have to wonder why an island of 36 square miles and 2,300 inhabitants would even be on this list, but then you see the numbers that count. Yes, according to The Wine Institute, Norfolk Islanders are buying almost 55 liters of wine a year, and it’s not like visitors and hoards of tourists are pumping up those figures! I worked it out and it looks like some 14,000 cases of wine are heading to Norfolk Island annually. That’s an awful lot of wine for 2,300 people, some 16 percent of whom are under the age of 14. Anyone know the drinking age on Norfolk Island? Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/globalcitizen01/6850582071/" target="_hplink">GlobalCitizen01</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Vatican City, 54.78 liters per person

    To be honest I’m not sure if I made this 11 countries so that I could include <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/andorra/" target="_hplink">Andorra</a> or so that I could include <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/vatican-city/" target="_hplink">Vatican City</a>. I mean it’s just a city, right? 109 square acres of Rome, more than half gardens, and home to about 832 people. This makes the inclusion of Norfolk Island seem entirely rational. You have to wonder if the 2,400 Italians who come to work every day in Vatican City skew these figures. It’s not that the consumption figures are really that high, it’s just, well, weird. Maybe there’s a lot of sacramental wine being used as well? Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/snoodette/2173653330/" target="_hplink">geekygirlnyc</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Countries That Just Missed The List

    As a little bonus, a few additional countries which make some lists for the top 11 wine consuming nations: <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/croatia/" target="_hplink">Croatia</a> is fifth on some lists, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/hungary/" target="_hplink">Hungary</a> ninth, <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/moldova/" target="_hplink">Moldova</a> tenth and <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/argentina/" target="_hplink">Argentina</a> eleventh. I’m not sure why these folks didn’t make The Wine Institute list, though I will note that both Hungary and Argentina saw recent consumption figures fall by 29 percent and 13 percent respectively, which may account for the inclusion in an earlier list. The big surprise in all of this? <a href="http://www.snooth.com/region/spain/" target="_hplink">Spain</a>. Where is Spain? Down in sixteenth place with 26.16 liters pp, down some 20 percent over the past four years. Don’t worry Spain, I’m coming to do my share! Photo courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/djt23/3402060513/" target="_hplink">DeeJayTee23</a> via Flickr/cc

  • Want To Learn More

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