AFP時事
デモ排除で多数の死者が出ても、米国がエジプトへの軍事支援を簡単にやめられないワケ
エジプトのモルシ前大統領を支持するデモ隊に対してエジプト軍が強制排除を行い多数の死者が出ている問題で、オバマ米大統領は8月15日、秋に予定している米軍とエジプト軍の合同軍事演習を中止すると発表した。だが米国がエジプトに対して実施している年13億ドル（約1265億円）の軍事援助の停止については言及しなかった。米国は中東最大の同盟国の一つであるエジプトへの対応をめぐって、大きなジレンマに直面している。
今回のエジプト情勢を複雑にしている背景のひとつが、今回、軍によって強制排除されているデモ隊が、ムスリム同胞団を中心とするモルシ前大統領支持派とい点である。
モルシ前大統領は、エジプトの民主化運動によってムバラク元大統領が辞任し、その後に行われた総選挙で大統領に就任した人物。だが就任するやモルシ大統領は非民主的な政策を次々に打ち出し、民主主義を後退させていった。民主的に選ばれた大統領が民主主義を否定するという悩ましい事態になったのである。
だがそのモルシ氏を排除したのは軍部であり、こちらも非民主的な手続きによるものであった。米国としてはエジプトの軍部を批判してモルシ大統領を復活させれば、エジプトが再び非民主的な政権になる可能性が高く、軍部の批判には慎重にならざるを得ない。一方で、現在の軍部が行っている行為は人権弾圧であり、支持することもできないという状況だ。
米国の法律では軍事独裁政権には建前上、軍事支援ができないことになっている。現在のエジプトはそれに該当する可能性が高いが、エジプトは米国にとって地政学上、非常に重要な地域であり、同盟関係を簡単には破棄できない状況にある。特にスエズ運河の管理をエジプト政府が担っていることは、米国にとっては最大の弱みになる。
またもう少し泥臭い事情もある。13億ドルの軍事援助は、米国がエジプトに資金を提供するのではなく、金額相当分の兵器や物資を提供するという形態になっている。エジプトに提供される兵器や物資は米国製であり、米国の軍需産業にとってエジプトへの軍事支援は大きなビジネス利権となっている。政治以外の分野でもエジプトへの支援継続を求める声が大きいのだ。
オバマ大統領は、「暫定政権の対応を見極めながら次の措置を考える」と述べており、軍事援助の削減も含む追加措置について含みを持たせている。
米国内部には、エジプトを含む中東からは完全に手を引き、アジア地域への対応に特化すべきとの声も大きい。実際、米軍は戦力の多くを中東からアジアにシフトする「リバランス戦略」を進めている。一方で、中東介入を基本とした従来の安全保障政策を堅持しようという動きもあり、状況は流動的だ。
エジプトに対する米国の対応は、単にエジプト問題だけでなく、米国の中東戦略全体にも関わってくる。エジプトに対する軍事支援を削減もしくは停止させる事態となれば、米国の中東からの撤退は今後加速することになるかもしれない。
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CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Cards showing the face of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi lie on the ground as Morsi supporters gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(32 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(33 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(34 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(35 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(36 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(37 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(38 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(39 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(40 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(41 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Egyptian military armoured vehicles stand guard at a checkpoint on the edge of Tahrir Square by the Egyptian Museum on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo by supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Egypt Braced For More Violence As Pro Morsi Supporters March On Cairo(42 of42)
CAIRO, EGYPT - AUGUST 16: Supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gather at the Fateh Mosque in Ramses Square for midday prayer on August 16, 2013 in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian Military has closed off the city\'s iconic Tahrir Square today to pedestrian traffic in response to calls for mass protests in downtown Cairo after midday prayer. Hundreds of pro-Morsi protesters were killed in Egypt\'s capital on August 14 as Egyptian Security Forces undertook a planned operation to clear Morsi supporters from two sit-in demonstrations in Cairo where they have camped for over one month. Egyptian Police and Army forces entered protest sites in the Nasr City and Giza districts at dawn on August 14, using tear gas, live fire and bulldozers to disperse protesters and destroy the camps. (Photo by Ed Giles/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)