Googleサーベイで誰でも調査専門家に

果たしてGoogleが専門機関の調査に取って代れるかどうかを見極めるためには、まだまだ多くのテストが必要だ。しかし、今すぐ使い始めるに十分な程度には有望と言えそうだ…
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BERLIN, GERMANY - MAY 31: The Google logo is seen on a yamulke hanging at the Jewish Museum as part of the exhibition 'The Whole Truth: Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Jews' on May 31, 2013 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Adam Berry/Getty Images)
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Googleサーベイを使えば誰でも調査専門家になれる

ネイト・シルバーと私は、Googleの消費者サーベイツールの大ファンだ。「おそらく、GallupではなくGoogleが、調査における最も信頼あるブランドになる日は近い」とシルバーは、2012年選挙でGoogleの調査結果が最も正確なうちの一つだったことを説明する中で書いた。

しかし、情報発信源の分析にもこれほど有用であることは、私自身がGallupの選挙以外の調査を1桁安く再現してみるまで知らなかった。先週Gallupは、アメリカ人の(比較的)反移民的な態度に関する重要な調査結果を公表した。それは移民法改訂法案の通過がなぜこれほど困難であるかを示す、これまで見た中で最良の証拠だった。

実は、この非常に重要な民意を知るためには、Gallupを含むどの専門機関を待つ必要もなかった。私がGoogleのサーベイ・ウィザード・ツールを使ってGallupの独自調査を再現するのに要した時間は約10分だった。

「移民は現在のレベルで維持されるべきか、増やすべきか、減らすべきか?」という質問に関して、GallupとGoogleの差異は、2つの分類を除くあらゆる回答に関して数ポイント以内だった(移民を減らしたい共和党持者が15ポイント、「現状維持」の共和党支持者が12ポイント異なっていた)。

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詳細結果は以下の通り。

GallupGoogle

増やすべき (共和党支持)1616

増やすべき (民主党支持)2928

増やすべき (中立)2221

減らすべき (共和党支持)4661

減らすべき (民主党支持)2728

減らすべき (中立)3541

現状維持 (民主党支持)3638

現状維持 (共和党持)4220

現状維持 (中立)4134

共和党支持者の回答に関してGoogleが〈間違っている〉かどうかは不明だ。インターネットと電話では調査対象の層が当然異なり、インターネットが若者寄り、電話は年長者寄りだ(まだ電話を持っている人がいた?)。また、移民を減らすべきだと電話で答えることには抵抗のある人もいるが、顔の見えないパソコン画面なら内在する外国人嫌いを自由に表現できる。

果たしてGoogleが専門機関の調査に取って代れるかどうかを見極めるためには、まだまだ多くのテストが必要だ。しかし、今すぐ使い始めるに十分な程度には有望と言えそうだ。

この国のジャーナリスト学校では、(非常に難解な)調査方法の理論を教えているに違いないので、これからはより客観的証拠を講義に加えることができる。Googleのおかげで、誰もが調査専門家になる能力を持てるのだから。

このライターを刺激して、さらに情報満載の統計を出させよう。

(翻訳:Nob Takahashi)

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