スコットランド独立投票、ヨーロッパ全域への影響は避けられない

18日に行われるスコットランド独立の是非を問う住民投票の結果がどうなろうと、従来の主権国家で構成される欧州の姿は変容していこうとしている。中央政府の統制力が弱まり、一部地域が離反するという流れだ。
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18日に行われるスコットランド独立の是非を問う住民投票の結果がどうなろうと、従来の主権国家で構成される欧州の姿は変容していこうとしている。中央政府の統制力が弱まり、一部地域が離反するという流れだ。

住民投票でスコットランド独立賛成派が勝利すれば、欧州では政治的な地殻変動が起こり、スペインにおけるカタルーニャからベルギーにおけるフランドルに至るまでの分離独立運動を刺激することになる。

またスコットランド独立反対が過半数を占めた場合でも、英政府はスコットランド行政府により大きな権限を譲渡すると約束しており、ウェールズや北アイルランドにも同じような措置がもたらされる可能性は大きい。

いずれにせよ、独立について住民投票が実施されたという前例は、欧州全域に反響を巻き起こすだろう。

例えばスペイン政府はもはや、独立の是非を問う住民投票を要求するカタルーニャ住民の圧力には抗しきれないと判断するかもしれない。カタルーニャ州は人口が740万人に上り、EU加盟のうちの十数カ国よりも規模が大きい。

先週には数十万人の住民がスペイン政府に投票実施を求めるデモを行っており、こうした動きは既により大きな自治権を獲得しているスペインのバスク地方にも影響を及ぼしていくのは間違いない。

欧州の地図は冷戦によって何十年も固定化されてきたが、ベルリンの壁崩壊以降は新国家が誕生し、昔存在していた国家もバルカン半島では流血を伴い、バルト海地域では平和裏に、それまでの中央政府のくびきを脱して再び姿を現した。

こうした非常に不安定な遠心力と求心力の対決が解き放たれた一因は、グローバリゼーションと欧州連合(EU)の統合推進にある。

EUと英国で外交官を務めたロバート・クーパー氏は、欧州諸国を「ポストモダン国家」と称し、主権の一部が自由に共有されるようになったと説明。2003年の著書「国家の崩壊」で、「EUは各加盟国の国内問題に相互に介入するための高度に発展したシステムになった」と記した。

これによって国境の重要性は低下し、地方レベルで住民がより民主的な統治を求める動きが強まった。

ただEUはこれらの変化のきっかけになってきた例が多いが、常に解決策を提供しているわけでもない。

1990年にEUが設立した地域委員会は域内地方政府に政策決定に関する発言の機会を付与したものだが、実権のない諮問機関を1つ増やしただけの形になっている。

かつて域内で最も強い自治権を持つある地方政府の代表を務めた人物は「地域委員会は完全な失敗だ。やはり国家でなければ、さまざまな問題をEUに政策議題として持ち込むことはできない」と話した。

それでもスコットランドやカタルーニャの独立運動は、欧州統合を自国政府の支配から逃れる手段とみなしている。彼らはEUの会議に自らの席を確保して、英国やスペインの介在を減らしたいと考えているのだ。

欧州において2008年に始まった経済危機は、中央集権化と地域主権拡大主義という2つの相対立する推進力をともに加速させた。また各国内で富める地域と貧しい地域の資源配分をめぐる衝突が激化、一例はベルギーのオランダ語圏フランドルとフランス語圏ワロンの対立だが、それだけでなくイタリアやドイツでも同様の状況が起きた。

ドイツで富裕なバイエルン州やヘッセン州は、貧しい北東部の州に補助金をこれ以上提供したくないと考え、裁判所に財政平準化制度の異議を申し立てた。イタリアでも豊かな北部が南部に分配することにうんざりしていて、そうした負担を制限する財政連邦主義的なシステムを導入した。

スコットランドやカタルーニャで有権者を独立賛成に傾かせたのは、中央政府の政治指導層が一般国民の手の届かないところで絵を描いた緊縮財政への抗議という側面もある。

一方で経済危機は、英国独立党や仏国民戦線、オーストリアとオランドの自由党といった極右政党も躍進させた。彼らはEUからの離脱と、移民や輸入品に対して国境を固める保護主義を唱えている。

EUにとっては従来の主権国家の分裂が進めば、意思決定システムにかかる緊張が増し、動脈硬化を起こすリスクが出てくる。

加盟28カ国でさえ、満場一致で場合によっては国民投票も加えた形で条約を批准するというのは十分に難しい。さらにバルカン半島地域の6カ国が新たに加盟を求めており、現加盟国の一部が分裂する可能性がある点からすれば、EUは運営不能に陥ってしまう恐れがあるとの懸念も専門家の中から聞こえてきている。

ジュネーブ大学グローバル問題研究所のニコラ・ルブラ氏は、「小国家」の増殖がEUの統治システムの改革を促しつつあると指摘。「これほど新国家が多くなれば、国家代表で構成するEUのやり方を修正せざるを得なくなる。6(カ国)で始まって28程度でまずまず機能している制度が、100になってうまく働かないのは明らかだ」と述べた[パリ 14日 ロイター] 。

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Yes And No Campaigns Take To The Streets Of Edinburgh And Glasgow(50 of56)
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EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 09: First Minister Alex Salmond, meets with Scots and other European citizens to celebrate European citizenship and Scotland\'s continued EU membership with a possible Yes vote on September 9, 2014 in Edinburgh, Scotland. With just eight days of campaigning left before voters will go to the polls to vote yes or no on whether Scotland should become an independent country, Sturgeon argued that a Yes vote would present an opportunity for all of Scotland\'s communities to work together to build a fairer and more prosperous country. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) (credit:Jeff J Mitchell via Getty Images)
Yes And No Campaigns Take To The Streets Of Edinburgh And Glasgow(51 of56)
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EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 09: First Minister Alex Salmond, meets with Scots and other European citizens to celebrate European citizenship and Scotland\'s continued EU membership with a possible Yes vote on September 9, 2014 in Edinburgh, Scotland. With just eight days of campaigning left before voters will go to the polls to vote yes or no on whether Scotland should become an independent country, Sturgeon argued that a Yes vote would present an opportunity for all of Scotland\'s communities to work together to build a fairer and more prosperous country. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) (credit:Jeff J Mitchell via Getty Images)
Yes And No Campaigns Take To The Streets Of Edinburgh And Glasgow(52 of56)
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EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 09: (EDITORS NOTE: This image is a re-crop of image #455028102) First Minister Alex Salmond, meets with Scots and other European citizens to celebrate European citizenship and Scotland\'s continued EU membership with a possible Yes vote on September 9, 2014 in Edinburgh, Scotland. With just eight days of campaigning left before voters will go to the polls to vote yes or no on whether Scotland should become an independent country, Sturgeon argued that a Yes vote would present an opportunity for all of Scotland\'s communities to work together to build a fairer and more prosperous country. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) (credit:Jeff J Mitchell via Getty Images)
Yes And No Campaigns Take To The Streets Of Edinburgh And Glasgow(53 of56)
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GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 9: Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (MSP), and anti-poverty campaigner and lifelong Labour Party member Bob Holman on the Yes Campaign trail pose with \'Yes\' campaigners in Easterhouse on September 9, 2014 in Glasgow, Scotland. With just eight days of campaigning left before voters will go to the polls to vote Yes or No on whether Scotland should become an independent country, Alex Salmond has suggested that the No campaign is falling apart. (Photo by Mark Runnacles/Getty Images) (credit:Mark Runnacles via Getty Images)
Scottish independence referendum(54 of56)
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Labour leader Ed Miliband campaigns in the Scottish independence referendum near the Blantyre miners community resource centre in Scotland. (credit:Danny Lawson/PA Wire)
Scottish independence referendum(55 of56)
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SNP leader Alex Salmond during a visit to Brownings Bakers bakery in Kilmarnock, Scotland where he was presented with Aye branded cakes, as the Scottish independence referendum campaign continues. (credit:Danny Lawson/PA Wire)
Scottish independence referendum(56 of56)
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A Better Together supporters is pictured in Princes Street Gardens in Edinburgh, Scotland, as the Scottish independence referendum campaign continues. (credit:Danny Lawson/PA Wire)