イギリス国民投票の結果、EUからの離脱が確実な情勢となった。しかし、イギリスがいますぐ離脱できるというわけではない。今後、どのようなプロセスを歩むのだろうか？
▼実際の脱退は2年後か
みずほ総合研究所のレポートなどによると、EUからの脱退手続きについては、欧州連合条約第50条で定められている。
条約に基づいて、キャメロン首相は、欧州理事会に脱退の通告をし、離脱に関する取り決めを定めた協定を締結することになっている。交渉期限は通告から2年間で、それまでに協定が結べない場合はその時点で加盟国の地位を失う。
テレグラフによると、残留派だったキャメロン首相はこれまで、「国民投票後は速やかにEU側に通告し、脱退・新協定交渉に入る」と公言してきた。
宣言通りすぐに交渉が始まった場合、交渉期限は2年後の2018年夏となる。交渉の延期も可能だが、EU全加盟国の合意が必要となっている。
▼EUとの新たな協定はカナダ型のFTA？
脱退協定と並行して策定が進められるのが、EUとイギリスとの間で結ばれる新たな貿易などの協定だ。これが今後のイギリスの立場を決定付けるものになる。
ロイターによると、ジョンソン前ロンドン市長らEU離脱支持者は、離脱後の協定について、カナダがEUと調印した自由貿易協定（FTA）を目指している。この形を結べば、イギリスは引き続き、多くの貿易品目で関税なしで取引ができるなどの便益を得られる一方、移民受け入れを制限し、EUへの拠出金を払う必要がなくなるなどのメリットが大きい。
離脱までにこの新たな協定を結ぶことができなければ経済や市場の混乱は必至だ。しかしこのFTAについて、カナダのトルドー首相はEUとの合意完了に10年近くかかったことから、「協定の交渉は容易ではない」と警告している。
ガーディアンによると、世界貿易機関（WTO）のアゼベド事務局長は、協定が結ばれなかった場合、英企業の関税負担は55億ポンドに達し、イギリスの消費者が負担することになるだろうと話している。
▼国民投票が議会で覆される可能性も？
一方、国民投票の結果を踏まえても、離脱の意思が覆される可能性もないわけではないと、インディペンデントは指摘している。国民投票に法的拘束力がないためだ。インディペンデントによると、650人の国会議員は過半数を残留派が占めており、国会に議案が提案されれば投票結果を覆すことも法的には可能だ。
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