「海面上昇」と「ハリケーン」によって、アメリカで8つの原発が危険になる

1970年代から1980年代の間に数多くの原子炉が新たに建設された時、原発管理者の大半は、海面は一定の緩やかなスピードで上昇していくだろうと考えていた。実際には、海面上昇のスピードは次第にアップしている。
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The Huffington Post

2011年に東日本大震災が発生し、約15メートルもの高さに達した津波が護岸を乗り越え、福島第一原子力発電所を襲った。そして、3基の原子炉が炉心溶融を起こした。

この事故を受け、アメリカの原子力規制委員会(NRC)は全米の原子力施設に対し、大地震および海面上昇や高潮などによって起こりうる洪水への対策を検証するよう要請した(英文PDF)。

見直しの期日は、来年の2015年3月だ。ということは、アメリカで稼働している原発の多くが、対策を見直すどころか、潜在的な弱点の把握さえも終わっていないということになる。

1970年代から1980年代の間に数多くの原子炉が新たに建設された時、原発管理者の大半は、海面は一定の緩やかなスピードで上昇していくだろうと考えていた。実際には、海面上昇のスピードは次第にアップしている。

1880年から2009年の間に、海面は約20センチメートル上昇したとされている。年間平均にすると約1.5ミリメートルだ。ところが、過去20年間だけを見ると、年平均で3.3ミリメートル上昇しており、スピードが2倍になっている。

米海洋大気庁(NOAA)は、2100年までの海面上昇について4つの異なる想定シナリオを描いている(英文PDF)。その中で最も楽観的なシナリオでさえ、今世紀終わりまでの海面上昇は少なくとも21.3センチメートルになると予測している。一方、最悪の状態を想定したシナリオでは、今世紀末までの86年の間に、213センチメートル近く上昇すると予測している。

海面が上昇すれば、洪水は今以上に内陸部まで到達することになり、これまでは安全だと考えられてきた地域にも危険が及ぶ可能性が出てくる。例えば、2012年に米東海岸に大きな被害をもたらした巨大暴風雨「ハリケーン・サンディ」の際には、ニュージャージー州のオイスター・クリーク原子力発電所セーラム原子力発電所の取水口水位が警戒レベルを越えた。

Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Generating Stations

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during Superstorm Sandy, 2012
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2046 during storm.
See how other coastal nuclear plants could be impacted by sea-level rise and storms: Turkey Point, St. Lucie, Brunswick, Seabrook, South Texas Project, Millstone and Pilgrim.

オイスター・クリーク原発は当時燃料交換のため停止中で、厳戒態勢に置かれたが、セーラム原発は稼働中だったが、川から水を取る循環水ポンプが故障し、手動で原子炉を止めた(また、ニューヨーク州のナインマイルポイント原発1号機とインディアンポイント原発3号機では原子炉が自動的に緊急停止。いずれも送電網の障害が原因と見られている)。

たとえ原子炉が稼働中でなくても、施設内には使用済み核燃料が保管されている。それらの大半はウラン燃料で、常に発熱している。そのため、冷却装置を使って冷やし続けなければならないが、装置を動かす電源もまた、原発に頼っている。しかし、洪水によって電源を喪失する可能性があるほか、事態が深刻化すれば、非常用発電機も動かないという状況もありうる。冷却システムが作動しなければ原子炉が過熱して施設に損傷を与え、最終的には放射性物質が外に漏れ出してしまう。

米ハフィントン・ポストが入手した米電力会社パブリック・サービス・エンタープライズ・グループ(PSEG)の資料によると、セーラム原発は、海抜約9メートルまでの洪水に耐えられるよう設計されている。また、同原発の原子炉運転認可が切れる2046年までに、海面は約15.2センチメートル上昇すると同社は予測している。

しかし、NOAAによる今後の海面上昇予測値を用いて米ハフィントン・ポストが計算したところ、水位が最悪のペースで上昇した場合、同原発では2046年までに約55センチメートルも上昇することがわかった。PSEG社がセーラム原発において採用している予測値を30センチメートル以上も越えている。

さらに厄介なことに、米ハフィントン・ポストの推測では、もし海面上昇がNOAAの最悪予測値に達し、その上、暴風雨も襲来したとなれば、セーラム原発の施設底部まで30センチもない高さまで洪水が迫ってくることになる。

アメリカの原子炉設備の運転期間は本来、40年間と定められている。しかしNRCは、1990年代の終わりから、20年間の期間延長申請を受け付けるようになった。現在稼働中の原発のうち、いくつが2100年時点でも稼働しているかは分からないが、大半の原発が敷地内に使用済み燃料を保管しており、今後何千年もの間、放射能を放出し続けることになる。

アメリカには現在のところ、使用済み核燃料の長期保管が可能な場所はない。ネバダ州ユッカ・マウンテンに放射性廃棄物処理場を建設する計画があったが、2009年にオバマ大統領が建設計画を中止。連邦議会も2011年に予算を凍結した。

大西洋で暴風雨が多発するハリケーンシーズンに入る6月に先駆けて、米ハフィントン・ポストおよび天気専門サイト「Weather.com」は、NOAAの予測をもとに、2100年までに海面上昇に対して脆弱となる可能性が高い原子力発電所8カ所を特定した。どの原発の運転認可も、2100年を待たずに切れるものの、それよりもずっと早い時期に洪水が起こる可能性はあるだろう。

具体的には、ターキー・ポイント(フロリダ州)、セント・ルーシー(フロリダ州)、ブランズウィック(ノースカロライナ州)、シーブルック(ニューハンプシャー州)、サウス・テキサス・プロジェクト(テキサス州)、ミルストン(コネチカット州)、ピルグリム(マサチューセッツ州)だ。海面上昇ならびに暴風雨が沿岸部各地の原子炉に及ぼす影響の詳細は、施設名をクリックしてご覧いただきたい(英文)。

私たちは、各原発の海抜と、2012年のNOAA報告に盛り込まれた手法をもとにした今後の海面上昇予測値を組み合わせた上で、数値を割り出した。さらに、今後起こりうる最悪の洪水を推測するべく、歴史に残る暴風雨の襲来時に各原発で記録された最大潮位と、NOAAによる現在の運転認可が切れる年の最悪の想定海抜を加味している。

2010年、フロリダ・パワー・アンド・ライト社が同州ホームステッドのターキー・ポイント原子力発電所に原子炉を2基増設するための許可申請を行なった。その際、NRCは同社に対し、「今後起こりうる気候変動による将来的な海面上昇の可能性をどう考えているのか」説明するよう求めたことが、NRCの文書記録に残っている。それに対して同社は、気候変動に関する自社分析に触れることなく、海面上昇は1世紀につき約30センチメートルの一定したペースで進むことを前提とした予測を盛り込んだ。これは、NOAAが予測した2100年時点の最悪の数値より約171センチメートルも低い。

以下に、ターキー・ポイント原子力発電所に関する情報をグラフ化して掲載する。

ターキー・ポイント原子力発電所

「原子力発電所は海面からどれくらい高いか」のグラフ
NOAAデータによる海面上昇の予測値と、1992年の「ハリケーン・アンドリュー」襲来で記録された高潮ピーク時のデータ
現在の海面での画像

2033年に海面上昇が最悪の予測値に達した場合に

暴風雨が襲った時の海の予測画像

St. Lucie Plant

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during Hurricane Frances, 2004
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2043 during storm.

Brunswick Steam Electric Plant

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during Hurricane Hazel, 1954
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2036 during storm.

Seabrook Station

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during a January 2010 storm
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2030 during storm.

South Texas Project

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during Hurricane Carla, 1961
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2028 during storm.

Millstone Power Station

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during the "Long Island Express" Hurricane, 1938
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2045 during storm.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station

Plant Elevation Above Sea Level
Plant elevation assuming NOAA worst-case sea-level rise and peak storm tide recorded during a 1978 blizzard
Present-day sea level

Estimated worst-case flooding

in 2032 during storm.
Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Google Maps and Weather.com
Maps assume no mitigation efforts. Plants with adequate flood protection or those slated for closure were not included.
Sea-level projections for years prior to 2100 are derived using the formula in the NOAA's 2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment report.

[Shane Shifflett,Kate Sheppard(English) 日本語版:遠藤康子/ガリレオ]

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The Earth From Above
Lake Nasser(01 of11)
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Egypt\'s Lake Nasser was photographed in January 2005 from the International Space Station. (credit:NASA)
Sahara Desert(02 of11)
Open Image Modal
Tassili n\'Ajjer National Park, part of the Sahara Desert, has a bone-dry climate with scant rainfall, yet it doesn\'t blend in with Saharan dunes. Instead, the rocky plateau rises above the surrounding sand seas. This image from 2000 was made from multiple observations by the Landsat 7 satellite, using a combination of infrared, near-infrared and visible light to better distinguish among the park\'s various rock types. (credit:NASA)
Hydrogen Sulfide and Dust Plumes on Namibia's Coast(03 of11)
Open Image Modal
Cloudless skies allowed a clear view of dust and hydrogen sulfide plumes along the coast of Namibia in early August 2010. Multiple dust plumes blow off the coast toward the ocean, most or all of them probably arising from stream beds. Unlike the reddish-tan sands comprising the dunes directly south of the Kuiseb River, the stream-channel sediments are lighter in color. Wind frequently pushes dust plumes seaward along the Namibian coast. (credit:NASA)
Islands of Four Mountains(04 of11)
Open Image Modal
The snow-capped volcanoes composing the Islands of the Four Mountains in Alaska\'s Aleutian Island chain look suspiciously like alien worlds in this August 2010 image from the ASTER camera aboard NASA\'s orbiting Terra satellite. (credit:NASA)
Sarychev Volcano(05 of11)
Open Image Modal
Astronauts at the International Space Station captured this striking view of the Sarychev volcano on Russia\'s Kuril Islands in an early stage of eruption on June 12, 2009. Sarychev Peak is one of the most active volcanoes in the Kuril Islands chain. (credit:NASA)
Arctic Eclipse(06 of11)
Open Image Modal
NASA\'s Terra satellite was rounding the top of the globe -- making its way from the eastern tip of Siberia and across the Arctic Ocean toward northwest Russia -- when it captured this unique view of a total solar eclipse on Aug. 1, 2008. In the area shown in the image, the sun was obscured for about two minutes. As Earth rotated, the shadow moved southeast across the surface. At the same time, the satellite crossed the Arctic with its path nearly perpendicular to the eclipse.\n (credit:NASA)
Fargo(07 of11)
Open Image Modal
The Advanced Land Imager on NASA\'s Earth Observing-1 satellite shows a snowy blanket over Fargo, N.D., on Dec. 12. (credit:NASA)
Island Beauty(08 of11)
Open Image Modal
The south end of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas shimmers in turquoise waters in this 2002 photo from the International Space Station. (credit:NASA)
Massive Sandstorm(09 of11)
Open Image Modal
A massive sandstorm sweeps over Qatar as it races south toward southeastern Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on Feb. 15, 2004. A major upper-level, low-pressure system over southwestern Asia led to a series of storms sweeping through the area. The crew of the International Space Station captured this image with a digital camera using a 50-millimeter lens. (credit:NASA)
Lake Naivasha, Kenya(10 of11)
Open Image Modal
Flowers grow year round in sun-drenched Kenya, and nowhere are they more plentiful than Lake Naivasha, shown here. In this view from space, bright white squares mix with fields of green, tan and purple along the shores of the lake. Sunlight glints off the long rows of glass greenhouses, turning them silvery blue and white. Fallow fields are tan and pink, while growing plants turn the ground bright green. Roses, lilies and carnations are the most common flowers grown in the greenhouses and fields scattered around the lake. (credit:GSFC / METI / ERSDAC / JAROS / NASA)
Cumulonimbus Cloud Over Africa(11 of11)
Open Image Modal
High above the African continent, tall, dense cumulonimbus clouds, meaning \"cloud heap\" in Latin, are the result of atmospheric instability. The clouds can form alone, in clusters or along a cold front in a squall line. The high energy of these storms is associated with heavy precipitation, lightning, high wind speeds and tornadoes. (credit:NASA)