時事通信社
横浜市で開催されていた国連の気候変動に関する政府間パネル（IPCC）の総会が3月29日最終日を迎えた。MSN産経ニュースによると、地球温暖化により自然や社会が受ける影響を科学的に評価する第２作業部会が、報告書を７年ぶりに改定し、31日に公表する。日本で初めて開催されたIPCCでどんな議論が交わされ、報告書が作成されたのか。その内容が注目される。
NHKによると、総会2日目の26日、IPCCのラジェンドラ・パチェウリ議長は横浜市で記者会見し、次のように述べた。
パチャウリ議長は、気候変動は現在進行形の問題で、状況は次第に悪化しており、「取り返しのつかない変化が起こりうる」と警告しました。（中略）また、パチャウリ議長は日本に対して「エネルギー効率の高い技術が、ほかの国々の模範となってほしい」と述べ、日本の企業などに世界の温室効果ガスの削減に向けて協力を促しました。
（NHKニュース「ＩＰＣＣ議長 速やかな温暖化対策を」より 2014/03/26 20:57）
イギリスの新聞「ガーディアン」によると、今回の報告書では、気候変動はすでに「全ての大陸と海洋に影響が及んでいる」とし、農作物の生産に損害を与え、疫病が蔓延し、氷河が溶解する危機に瀕していると警告を発している。
また、イギリスの新聞「テレグラフ」によると、報告書では今世紀末には世界の平均気温が2.5℃上昇し、気候変動対策のためにかかるコストは毎年600億ポンド（約10兆円）に達する見通しを示している。
IPCCとはどんな組織なのか。コトバンクでは次のように説明している。
気候変動に関する政府間バネル(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)の略称。国連と世界気象機関(WMO)により1988年に設立され、2500人以上の科学者の気候変動に関する研究成果をまとめて、問題解決に必要な政策を示している。
作業部会は3つあり、(1)気候システムと気候変動の科学的知見の評価、(2)社会経済システムや生態系の脆弱(ぜいじゃく)性、気候変動の影響と適応策の評価、(3)温室効果ガスの排出抑制と気候変動の緩和策の評価、となっている。
昨年9月の「科学的根拠」編では、二酸化炭素の排出増が続くと今世紀末には世界の平均気温は最大4・8度上昇するなどと予測。第3弾の「温室効果ガスの削減策」編は4月にドイツで公表される。秋には統合報告書もまとめられる。京都議定書に続く国際枠組み交渉での重要な基礎資料になる。
気候変動に対する各国の取り組みも加速している。ハフポストUS版によると、アメリカ政府は28日、温室効果ガスを削減するため、新たなメタンガスの削減策を実施することを発表した。メタンガスは二酸化炭素よりも温暖化を引き起こす効果が34倍にも及ぶ。
メタンガスの排出量はアジアが突出していることが国立環境研究所と宇宙航空研究開発機構（JAXA）のチームによる観測で明らかになっている。
これらの地域では水田や湿地からの発生や、化石燃料が不完全燃焼したことに伴う排出が多いという。（中略）１１年５月までの２年間の観測では、地域別の年間排出量はインドを含む南アジアが約４９００万トンで最大、次いで東南アジアが４７００万トン。日本は比較的少ないという。
（47NEWS「メタンの量、アジアが突出 強い温室効果、衛星で観測」より 2014/03/27 18:51）
【※】全世界に及ぶ気候変動の影響に対し、日本をはじめ世界各国はどのような環境対策とエネルギー政策を行うべきと考えますか。皆さんのご意見をお寄せ下さい。
「気候変動の影響がわかる写真集」
Fragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperColli(01 of20)
Muir Glacier Shrinkage, Alaska, USA\nAugust 1941\n (credit:HarperCollins)
Muir Glacier Shrinkage, Alaska, USA(02 of20)
September 2004\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Briksdalsbreen Glacier Retreat, Norway(03 of20)
May 2004\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Briksdalsbreen Glacier Retreat, Norway(04 of20)
July 2009\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Tidal Problems, Venice, Italy(05 of20)
May 2008\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Tidal Problems, Venice, Italy(06 of20)
November 2009\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Amazon Deforestation, Rondônia, Brazil(07 of20)
January 2000\n\n\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Amazon Deforestation, Rondônia, Brazil(08 of20)
January 2003\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Amazon Deforestation, Rondônia, Brazil(09 of20)
January 2006\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Amazon Deforestation, Rondônia, Brazil(10 of20)
January 2009\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Wildfire, Yellowstone National Park, USA(11 of20)
August 1987\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Wildfire, Yellowstone National Park, USA(12 of20)
August 1989\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Wildfire, Yellowstone National Park, USA(13 of20)
July 1997\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Wildfire, Yellowstone National Park, USA(14 of20)
September 2008\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Draining of the Mesopotamian Marshlands, Iraq(15 of20)
May 2005\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Draining of the Mesopotamian Marshlands, Iraq(16 of20)
June 2005\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Urbanization, Dubai, United Arab Emirates(17 of20)
November 2000\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Urbanization, Dubai, United Arab Emirates(18 of20)
November 2004\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Urbanization, Dubai, United Arab Emirates(19 of20)
March 2007\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
Urbanization, Dubai, United Arab Emirates(20 of20)
February 2010\r\n\r\n\r\nFragile Earth app pictures courtesy of HarperCollins (credit:HarperCollins)
気候変動で失われるかもしれないもの
Wine Tasting Parties(01 of25)
Winegrowers in France\'s Champagne region and scientists have already seen changes in the past 25 years, reported The New York Times last year. They have \"noted major changes in their vineyards, including an increased sugar content in the grapes from which they make their wine, with a consequent decrease in acidity, and a harvest time that regularly comes two weeks earlier than it once did.\"\n\nLast year, the Telegraph reported that Bordeaux, one of the world\'s most famous wine-producing regions, may be \"unsuitable for wine-growing by 2050.\" \n\nYale Environment 360 explains that many European wines are tied to a specific geographical area, creating a problem for regions which may soon find themselves most suited to a new kind of grape. \n\nIn the U.S., researchers at Stanford University found that climate change could mean \"50% less land suitable for cultivating premium wine grapes in high-value areas of Northern California.\"\n\nA 2006 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that \"up to 81 percent\" of \"premium-wine-grape production area\" could decline in the U.S. by the end of this century, reported Wired. Without any adaptation measures, wine-grape production could disappear from \"many areas\" of the country.\n\nWired notes, \"By the law of supply and demand, that suggests the best wines of tomorrow will cost even more than the ridiculous amounts they fetch today.\" (credit:Getty)
Winnie The Pooh's Key Plot Point(02 of25)
According to the USDA, bee populations are dropping nationwide. Wetter winters and rainy summers make it harder for bees to get out and about to collect, leaving them to starve or become malnourished and more prone to other diseases. This doesn\'t just mean a decline in honey. We rely on bees to pollinate crops. When bees disappear, many food crops could also die off. (credit:Flickr: Ano Lobb. @healthyrx)
Spring Break, Wohoo!(03 of25)
As global temperatures rise this century, sea levels are also expected to increase. South Florida may be hit particularly hard.\n\nIf greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, global sea levels could rise over three feet by 2100, with a six foot rise possible. The U.S. Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming notes:\n
This threatens to submerge Florida\'s coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state.\n\nUniversity of Florida professor Jack Putz said in 2008, \"People have a hard time accepting that this is happening here,\" reported the Tampa Bay Times. Seeing dead palm trees and other impacts \"brings a global problem right into our own back yard,\" he added.\n\nClick here to see a map showing what different levels of sea level rise would look like for Florida and other states. (credit:Getty)
Cute Baby Polar Bear Videos(04 of25)
A November 2011 study found that polar bear litters are getting smaller as climate change causes sea ice decline. According to World Wildlife Fund, the study \"found that if spring sea ice break-up occurs one month earlier than usual, 40-73 percent of pregnant females could fail to bring cubs to term.\"\n\nThe National Snow and Ice Data Center found that in 2010, Arctic sea ice was at its lowest January level in 30 years.\n\nWith decreased sea ice, polar bears may have greater trouble finding food sources. This could lead to cannibalism, which has already been observed by photographers. Environmental photojournalist Jenny Ross told BBC News in 2011, \"There are increasing numbers of observations of it occurring, particularly on land where polar bears are trapped ashore, completely food-deprived for extended periods of time due to the loss of sea ice as a result of climate change.\" (credit:Getty)
PB&Js(05 of25)
Thanks to a failing peanut crop due to last summer\'s scorching hot weather, there was a shortage of peanuts in supply at the end of 2011. If temperatures continue to rise, a jump in peanut butter prices is just the prelude to what could be in store for the beloved spread. (credit:Alamy)
Chocolate Cravings(06 of25)
A report released by the International Center For Tropical Agriculture warns chocolate could become a luxury item if farmers don\'t adapt to rising temperatures in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, where a majority of the world\'s cocoa is grown.\n\nThe October 2011 report, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, \"calls for increased research into heat and drought resistant crops, and to help transition cocoa farming to new regions that will be suitable for production in the future,\" reported ThinkProgress. (credit:Flickr: John Loo)
Not Sneezing(07 of25)
Bad news for allergy sufferers -- climate change, and specifically warmer temperatures, may bring more pollen and ragweed, according to a 2011 study from the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York.\n\nAlong with allergies, a changing climate may be tied to more infectious diseases. According to one study, climate change could affect wild bird migratory patterns, increasing the chances for human flu pandemics. Illnesses like Lyme disease could also become more prominent. (credit:Flickr: mcfarlandmo)
Keg Stands(08 of25)
Famed for producing some of the world\'s best beer, Germany could suffer from a drop in production due to climate change-induced water shortages. Barley and hops can only be grown with water, and using cheaper alternatives like corn isn\'t possible in Germany because of strict regulations about what you can make beer with.\n\nResearch published earlier this year in the journal Nature Climate Change found that \"unless farmers develop more heat-tolerant corn varieties or gradually move corn production from the United States into Canada, frequent heat waves will cause sharp price spikes,\" reported The New York Times. Price spikes for U.S. corn could affect prices of American macrobrews made with an adjunct ingredient like corn. (credit:Flickr: khawkins04)
Valentine's Day Cliches(09 of25)
With higher temperatures expected in northern latitudes in coming decades, the U.K. has begun a program to develop strawberries that will survive in higher temperatures with less water. Since chocolate also may be threatened, could sexy chocolate-covered strawberries, a Valentine\'s Day staple, be endangered?\n\nAccording to The Telegraph, Dr. David Simpson, a scientist with England\'s East Malling Research, said last year, \"Consumer demand for fresh strawberries in the UK has been growing year on year since the early 1990s. The British growers have done a great job of increasing their productivity to satisfy this demand between April and October. The future will be challenging due to the impacts of climate change and the withdrawal of many pesticides but the breeding programme at EMR is using the latest scientific approaches to develop a range of varieties that will meet the needs of our growers for the future.\" (credit:Getty File)
Coffeehouse Snobs(10 of25)
Coffee lovers may want to get that caffeine fix before the treasured drink becomes a rare export. Starbucks raised the issue last year when the company\'s director of sustainability told The Guardian that climate change is threatening the supply chain for the Arabica coffee bean.\n\nStarbucks Sustainability Director Jim Hanna told the paper, \"What we are really seeing as a company as we look 10, 20, 30 years down the road - if conditions continue as they are - is a potentially significant risk to our supply chain, which is the Arabica coffee bean.\" (credit:Flickr: Marc_Smith)
Rudolph (And Donner And Blitzen)(11 of25)
Reindeer, also known as \"caribou\" in North America, could face a difficult future in a warmer climate. According to U.S. News & World Report, \"Russell Graham, associate professor of geosciences and director of the Earth and Mineral Sciences Museum at Penn State University, says global warming will most harm the animals adapted to the coldest environments, primarily those accustomed to life in the Arctic.\"\n\nA 2008 study found that caribou in West Greenland are \"now arriving after peak foraging time, fewer calves are being born and more calves are dying,\" reported ScienceNews. (credit:Flickr: alana sise)
Yummy Pancake Breakfasts(12 of25)
It may be a bit harder to drown your pancakes in maple syrup in the future, studies suggest.\n\nAccording to a 2010 Cornell University study, \"maple syrup production in the Northeast is expected to slightly decline by 2100, and the window for tapping trees will move earlier by about a month.\" Additionally, most maple syrup production south of Pennsylvania \"will likely be lost by 2100 due to lack of freezing.\"\n\nClick here to watch one farmer\'s fight to save New Hampshire\'s sugar maples. (credit:ShutterStock)
Gone Fishin'(13 of25)
According to a 2002 study by the Natural Resources Defense Council and Defenders of Wildlife, a warming planet does not bode well for species that thrive in cold streams. The study found that \"global warming is likely to spur the disappearance of trout and salmon from as much as 18 to 38 percent of their current habitat by the year 2090.\"\n\nA 2011 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science produced \"models [which] forecast significant declines in trout habitat across the interior western United States in the 21st century,\" reported The New York Times.\n\nThe study claims, \"The decline will have significant socioeconomic consequences as recreational trout fisheries are valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars in the United States alone.\" (credit:Flickr: qmnonic)
NYC's Waterfront Real Estate (14 of25)
According to a 2012 report from New Jersey-based nonprofit Climate Central, thousands of New York City residents may be at risk for severe coastal flooding as a result of climate change.\n\nClimate Central explains, \"the NY metro area hosts the nation\'s highest-density populations vulnerable to sea level rise.\" They argue, \"the funnel shape of New York Harbor has the potential to magnify storm surges already supplemented by sea level rise, threatening widespread areas of New York City.\" (credit:Flickr: wuestenigel)
The Best Part Of July 4th(15 of25)
With droughts and wildfires hitting many parts of the U.S., municipalities from Colorado to Tennessee canceled July 4th public fireworks displays or banned personal fireworks this year, citing the fire hazards they posed.\n\nIn June, a study published in the journal Ecosphere found that almost all of North America will see more wildfires by 2100, reported Reuters. The study\'s lead author, Max Moritz, said, \"In the long run, we found what most fear - increasing fire activity across large areas of the planet.\" (credit:Getty File)
The Non-.com Amazon(16 of25)
Along with deforestation, climate change also poses a serious threat to South America\'s Amazon rainforest.\n\nA 2009 study from the U.K. Met Office found that a global temperature rise of four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would cause 85 percent of the Amazon to die off in the next 100 years. Even a two degree Celsius rise would kill 20 to 40 percent of the rainforest, reported the Guardian.\n\nIn May, The Club of Rome think tank predicted a global average temperatures rise of \"2 degrees Celsius by 2052 and a 2.8 degree rise by 2080,\" reported Reuters. Jorgen Randers, author of the club\'s report, said, \"It is unlikely that governments will pass necessary regulation to force the markets to allocate more money into climate-friendly solutions, and (we) must not assume that markets will work for the benefit of humankind.\"\n\nHe added, \"We are emitting twice as much greenhouse gases every year as are absorbed by the world\'s forests and oceans. This overshoot will worsen and will peak in 2030.\" (credit:Getty)
Island Getaways(17 of25)
As global sea levels rise during the 21st century, low-lying island nations like the Maldives could see their very existence threatened. With a three to six foot sea level rise predicted by 2100, nations like the Maldives could become uninhabitable, explained The New York Times.\n\nMaldives\' former president, Mohamed Nasheed, has been a tireless campaigner for the urgent need for countries to take action against climate change, arguing \"You can\'t pick and choose on science.\" (credit:Flickr: thetravelguru)
Ski Bums(18 of25)
Although seasonal fluctuations occur and El Nino/La Nina weather patterns affect snowfall, global temperature rise may impact conditions for skiers and boarders.\n\n\"The long-term trend is less snow and earlier snowmelt. This means more frustration for snow sport enthusiasts and a negative impact on the snow sports industry,\" writes the Natural Resources Defense Council\'s Theo Spencer.\n\nIn May, a snow-less ski race was held in Aspen, Colorado to \"highlight the effect climate change has on the outdoor recreation industry,\" reported the Associated Press. (credit:Flickr: Klearchos Kapoutsis)
Thanksgiving Dinner Food Comas(19 of25)
A 2010 paper in the journal Food Research International found that climate change may one day affect the cost and quality of traditional Thanksgiving dishes, reported Discovery News.\n\nFuture temperature rises could impact the quality of turkey meat. Additionally, foods like \"pumpkins, sweet potatoes, potatoes, grains [and] green beans ... will be sensitive to water shortages should they arise,\" study author Neville Gregory told Discovery News.\n\nIn fact, common Thanksgiving foods were impacted by weather events in 2011, with shortages and price spikes hitting over the holidays. (credit:Flickr: ilovebutter)
"Lady & The Tramp"-Like Scenes(20 of25)
Scientists at the British Met Office warn that Italy may soon be forced to import the basic ingredients to make pasta because climate change will make it impossible to grow durum wheat domestically. The crop could almost disappear from the country later this century, scientists say. (credit:Flickr: CyboRoZ)
Super Duper Fast Wi-Fi Connection(21 of25)
A 2011 report from the U.K.\'s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs found that climate change could affect certain infrastructure, like wireless internet. The Guardian reports, \"higher temperatures can reduce the range of wireless communications, rainstorms can impact the reliability of the signal, and drier summers and wetter winters may cause greater subsidence, damaging masts and underground cables,\" according to secretary of state for the environment.\n\nThe Guardian notes, \"The government acknowledges that the impact of climate change on telecommunications is not well understood, but the report raises a series of potential risks.\" (credit:Getty)
The Great Smoky Mountains' Smoke(22 of25)
The Great Smoky Mountains have the most annual rainfall in the southeastern U.S., which mostly falls as a light, misty rain, explains OurAmazingPlanet.\n\nA study by a team from NASA\'s Precipitation Measurement Missions found that \"light rainfall is the dominant form of precipitation in the region, accounting for 50 to 60 percent of a year\'s total, governing the regional water cycle.\" \n\nOurAmazingPlanet notes: \n
The results suggest the area may be more susceptible to climate change than thought; as temperatures rise, more of the fine droplets from light rain will evaporate in the air and fail to reach the ground. Lower elevations will have to contend with not only higher temperatures, but less cloud cover.(credit:Flickr: scmikeburton)
California Beach Bums(23 of25)
Along the California coast, beach communities are finding that it may be impossible to stop coastal erosion as global sea levels rise. \n\nAccording to AP, David Revell, a senior coastal scientist at ESA PWA, acknowledged the relentless power of the sea, saying, \"I like to think of it as getting out of the way gracefully.\"\n\nA report released in June by the Natural Resources Defense Council found that West Coast ocean levels will rise several inches in the next few decades. Sea levels along the California coast are expected to be six inches higher by 2030 and three feet higher by the end of the century.\n\nDespite the risks, another recent NRDC study found that California is one of several states with the best plans to deal with the effects of climate change. (credit:Flickr: bdearth)
Repeats Of The Titanic(24 of25)
2012 could be a record year for the extent of Arctic sea ice at its yearly summer minimum. Walt Meier, a research scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, said that with recent satellite observations, \"It definitely portends a low-ice year, whether it means it will go below 2007 (the record minimum in September), it is too early to tell,\" reported LiveScience.\n\nAs sea ice declines in the Arctic, countries are anticipating a competition for control of shipping lanes and mineral extraction in the region.\n\nIn Antarctica, research from the United States\' Palmer Station on the Antarctic Peninsula has found that \"87 percent of the peninsula\'s land-bound glaciers are in retreat,\" reported OurAmazingPlanet.\n\nDecreasing sea ice levels were also addressed in a recent spoof of Shell\'s plans to drill for oil in the Arctic this summer. (credit:ARCTICREADY.COM)
Crazy Sugar Highs(25 of25)
Climate change has already impacted sugarcane production in Indonesia. \n\nIn late 2011, the chairman of the Indonesian Sugarcane Farmers Association said, \"sugarcane production decreased by up to 30 percent in 2011 due to climate change that has occurred since 2009.\" \n (credit:ShutterStock)
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