Reuters
欧州とアジアで今年に入って天然ガスの価格が急落している。これにより、世界中の液化天然ガス（ＬＮＧ）輸出プロジェクトが想定される投資利益の引き下げを迫られ、コスト面で重圧にさらされるばかりか、一部では中止に追い込まれる案件も出てきそうだ。
英国の天然ガス価格の指標は、８月受け渡し分が年初からほぼ半分になった。背景には、暖冬や省エネの取り組みによる全般的なガス使用量の減少、再生可能エネルギーなど他の燃料との競合の高まり、人口伸び率低下を受けて需給が緩んでいることが挙げられる。
アジアでも、需要鈍化や太平洋地域で新規の供給源が利用できるようになったことから、今年のスポット価格は４０％超も下がった。
ロシアからウクライナを経由した欧州へのガス供給になお支障が出ていて、日本では東日本大震災の影響に伴う原発の運転停止が続いているが、それでもこうした価格下落が起きている。
アナリストによると、価格水準が低いままならば、北米から東アフリカに至る大規模でコストのかさむＬＮＧ輸出プロジェクトの多くは、問題に見舞われることになるという。
ロイヤル・ダッチ・シェル
欧州とアジアの価格下落は、米国の価格に対するプレミアムが急速に縮小していることも意味しており、この流れが続くようなら、一部の米国のＬＮＧ輸出プロジェクトの採算が厳しくなる恐れが出てくる。
米国ではシェールガスなどの非在来型ガスの開発が活発化したため、天然ガス価格は２００８年以降で大きく下落し、足元では１００万英国熱量単位（ＢＴＵ）当たり３─５ドルとなった。
業界のデータでは、現状で米国のＬＮＧ輸出プロジェクトが黒字を出すには、欧州の価格が１００万ＢＴＵ当たり９ドル、アジアでは１０．６５ドルでなければならない。
しかし７月初めの英国の価格は１００万ＢＴＵ当たり６．２５ドルで、米国のプロジェクトの黒字化可能範囲を大きく逸脱している。またアジアの価格も１１ドルまで下がっており、採算性が微妙になってきた。
さらにアナリストによると、米国がＬＮＧ輸出を予定通り来年から始めれば、供給が海外で増えて国内で減るため、欧州とアジアの価格が下がり、米国の価格は上昇してしまう。
米国のあるＬＮＧ輸出プロジェクト関係者は「われわれは以前行ったコストとリターンの見通しを再検討中で、より低いガス価格の環境で競争力を保てるように生産コストも減らさなければならなくなる」と嘆いた。
日本で計画通りに一部の原発が再稼働し、ウクライナ危機も終息した場合は、欧州とアジアのガス価格は一段と下落する事態もあり得る。
＜価格下落局面は続くか＞
天然ガスは今年最も需給が引き締まる時期が経過したことから、全般的には弱気な価格見通しが広がっている。それでも再び価格を押し上げる可能性がある要因が、なおいくつか存在する。
ガス市場が天候に非常に敏感であることは、昨年末から今年初めにかけての米国の寒波が価格高騰を引き起こしたという事実からも明らかだ。このためトレーダーによると、２０１４／１５年の欧州の冬が長く厳しいものになれば、ガス価格は５０％超上がって昨年の水準まで戻ってもおかしくないという。
またガス市場は、１１年の北アフリカや現在のウクライナで見られるような政情不安にも価格が左右される傾向がある。
欧州においては北海の天然ガス資源が減少してきているという問題もある。英国のガス生産量だけみても、１１年の４５２億立方メートルから昨年は３６５億立方メートルに落ち込んだ。英国のガス生産は、シェールガス生産を開始しても全体としては減少傾向が続くと予想されている。 ［ロンドン １０日 ロイター］
（Henning Gloystein記者）
関連記事
Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline Proposal
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A cargo ship sits docked at Rio Tinto Alcan\'s Kitimat Smelter on Douglas Channel, the proposed termination point for an oil pipeline in the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project, in Kitimat, B.C., on Jan. 10, 2012. (credit:Darryl Dyck/CP)
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The proposed tanker route leaving from Kitimat, B.C. is shown on a map. The 1,177-kilometre twin pipelines would run from Bruderheim, just outside Edmonton, to a tanker port on the northern coast of B.C. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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Enbridge workers are seen at a job site in this file image. The estimated cost of Northern Gateway is $7 billion and rising. (credit:YouTube)
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This Jan. 10, 2012 photo shows the Douglas Channel, the proposed termination point for an oil pipeline in the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project at Kitimat, B.C. The Rio Tinto smelter is at left and the town of Kitimat at upper right. (credit:Darryl Dyck/CP)
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A sign opposing the Enbridge pipeline is shown in downtown Kitimat, B.C. June, 17, 2014. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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Opponents to the Enbridge pipeline hold signs in downtown Kitimat, B.C. June, 17, 2014. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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RCMP officers keep an eye on an event with B.C. Premier Christy Clark to celebrate a recent land sale to the Haisla in Kitimat, B.C. on June 17, 2014. Protesters to the Enbridge Northern Gateway project are seen in the background. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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A sign against Enbridge hangs on a house in Kitimat, B.C. Tuesday, June, 17, 2014. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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A worker, left, uses a small boat to move logs on the Douglas Channel at dusk in Kitimat, B.C., on January 11, 2012. The Kitimat Marine Terminal would include two ship berths and 19 tanks to store oil and condensate. The facility would have the capacity to serve around 220 tankers per year. (credit:Darryl Dyck/CP)
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The Douglas Channel is the proposed shipping route for oil tanker ships in the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project, just south of Kitimat, B.C. (credit:Darryl Dyck/CP)
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A joint federal review panel recommended approval of the pipeline in December 2013 with 209 conditions. (credit:YouTube)
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Enbridge workers are seen at a job site in this file image. The company says Northern Gateway would result in 3,000 new construction jobs in B.C. and 560 long-term jobs. (credit:YouTube)
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A Kermode bear, better know as the Spirit Bear is seen fishing in the Riordan River on Gribbell Island in the Great Bear Rainforest, B.C. on Sept, 18, 2013. Pipeline opponents fear the Enbridge project will endanger wildlife along the project\'s route. (credit:Jonathan Hayward/CP)
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The proposed shipping route for the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project would cross many bodies of water and pristine areas in northern B.C. (credit:YouTube)
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Enbridge workers are seen at a job site in this file image. The Northern Gateway pipeline would be worth an estimated $300 billion in additional gross domestic product over 30 years. (credit:YouTube)
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Enbridge workers are seen at a job site in this file image. (credit:YouTube)
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Enbridge workers are seen at a job site in this file image. (credit:YouTube)
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The 1,177-kilometre twin pipelines would run from Bruderheim, just outside Edmonton, to a tanker port in Kitimat, on the northern coast of B.C. (credit:Enbridge)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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Donna Morgan holds a stuffed polar bear painted black to simulate oil during a protest against the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline in Vancouver on May 10, 2014. (credit:Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
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Tsleil-Waututh Elder Amy George (right) speaks to the crowd. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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Joan Lemmers, of Lions Bay, B.C., wears a salmon hat during a protest against the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline in Vancouver May 10, 2014. (credit:Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
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\"Ethical Oil\" author and Sun TV broadcaster Ezra Levant covered the event. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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People hold signs during a protest against the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline in Vancouver May 10, 2014. (credit:Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)
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Crystal Dixon was part of the No Enbridge rally. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
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Vancouver city councillor Andrea Reimer speaks to the crowd. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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Sisters Maria and Audrey Siegel from Musqueam Indian Band attend the No Enbridge rally. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
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Ben West (right) of ForestEthics, which organized the rally, speaks to the crowd. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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Patrick Meder, and Bruce Stout of the Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association attend the No Enbridge rally. (credit:Vancouver Observer Facebook)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
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Ben West (right) of ForestEthics, which organized the rally, takes a selfie break. (credit:Ben West)
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More than 1,000 people gathered at Sunset Beach in Vancouver on May 10, 2014 to protest the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Ben West)
"No Enbridge" Rally(39 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(40 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(41 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(42 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(43 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(44 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(45 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(46 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(47 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
"No Enbridge" Rally(48 of92)
Thousands gathered in downtown Vancouver on Nov. 16, 2013 to protest Enbridge\'s Northern Gateway pipeline project. (credit:Jesse Ferreras)
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Syncrude\'s Mildred Lake Upgrader, part of The Syncrude Project complex for oil sands processing, is pictured Monday, March 8, 2006 in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. (credit:Getty)
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The Syncrude oil sands extraction facility is reflected in a lake reclaimed from an old mine near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada on October 22, 2009. (credit:Getty)
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A disused mining machine on display in front of the Syncrude oil sands extraction facility near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta on October 22, 2009. \n (credit:Getty)
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The Suncor oilsands operation uses trucks that are 3 stories tall, weigh one million pounds, and cost 7 million dollars each. (credit:Getty)
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Oil sits on the surface at a Suncor Energy Inc. oilsands mining operation near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, on Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2013. Photographer: (credit:Getty)
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A large oil refinery along the Athabasca River in Alberta\'s Oilsands. Fort McMurray, Alberta. (credit:Getty)
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Oils mixes with water at a tailings pond at a Suncor Energy Inc. oilsands mining operation near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, on Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2013. (credit:Getty)
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Fort McMurray is in the heart of the world\'s biggest single oil deposit - the Athabasca Oil Sands, and the oil is extracted by surface mining and refined in the region. The oil production is at the heart of the economy. (credit:Getty)
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In this Aug. 5, 2005 file photo, the Syncrude upgrader spreads out towards the horizon at the company\'s oil sands project in Ft. McMurray, Alberta, Canada. \n (credit:AP)
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This Tuesday, July 10, 2012 aerial photo shows a Nexen oil sands facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. (credit:AP)
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This Sept. 19, 2011 aerial photo shows an oilsands facility near Fort McMurray, in Alberta, Canada. (credit:AP)
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This Sept. 19, 2011 aerial photo shows an oilsands tailings pond at a mine facility near Fort McMurray, in Alberta, Canada. (credit:AP)
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This Sept. 19, 2011 aerial photo shows an oilsands tailings pond at a mine facility near Fort McMurray, in Alberta, Canada. (credit:AP)
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The Syncrude extraction facility in the northern Alberta oil sand fields is reflected in the pool of water being recycled for re-use. (credit:Getty Images)
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A night view of the Syncrude oil sands extraction facility near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta Province, Canada on October 22, 2009. (credit:Getty)
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Aerial view of a lake and forests in the vicinity of oil sands extraction facilities near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada on October 23, 2009. (credit:Getty)
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Workers use heavy machinery in the tailings pond at the Syncrude oil sands extraction facility near the town of Fort McMurray in Alberta , Canada on October 25, 2009. (credit:Getty)
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Fort McMurray is in the heart of the world\'s biggest single oil deposit - the Athabasca Oil Sands, and the oil is extracted by surface mining and refined in the region. The oil production is at the heart of the economy. (credit:Getty)
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A large oil refinery in Alberta\'s Oilsands project. Fort McMurray, Alberta. (credit:Getty)
CFB Cold Lake, CNRL(68 of92)
A bitumen leak was reported at a Canadian Natural Resources oilsands operation in the weapons range part of the RCAF base in June 2013. (credit:WikiMedia:)
CFB Cold Lake, CNRL(69 of92)
Company officials said the leak - at what it calls its Primrose operation - was caused by faulty machinery at one of the wells, affected an area of approximately 13.5 hectares and released as much as 3,200 litres of bitumen each day. (credit:Getty)
CFB Cold Lake, CNRL(70 of92)
Preliminary tallies put the death toll from the leak at 16 birds, seven small mammals and 38 amphibians. Dozen were rescued and taken to an Edmonton centre for rehabilitation. (credit:Shutterstock)
CFB Cold Lake(71 of92)
As of early August 2013, more than 1.1 million litres of bitumen had been pulled from marshlands, bushes and waterways. (credit:Getty)
CFB Cold Lake, CNRL(72 of92)
Although CNRL could not say when the leak may finally be stopped, it estimates it will likely cost more than $40 million to clean up. (credit:Getty)
Plains Midstream(73 of92)
Little Buffalo band member Melina Laboucan-Massimo scoops up July 13, 2012 what appears to oil from the pond shoreline near the site of a 4.5 million-litre Plains Midstream pipeline leak detected April 29, 2011. Photos taken at the site and released by Greenpeace of Alberta\'s second-worst pipeline spill suggest at least part of the site remains heavily contaminated despite company suggestions that the cleanup is complete. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO-Greenpeace-Joe Whittle)
Plains Midstream Canada(74 of92)
A boat passes by a boom stretching out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(75 of92)
Debris pushes up against a boom as it stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(76 of92)
A boom stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream(77 of92)
A boom stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(78 of92)
A photographer snaps a boom stretching out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada (79 of92)
A boom stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(80 of92)
A worker slows traffic while a boom stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the Gleniffer reservoir near Innisfail, Alta., Tuesday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(81 of92)
A no swimming sign along the banks of the Gleniffer reservoir while a boom stretches out to contain a pipeline leak on the lake near Innisfail, Alta., Friday, June 12, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of sour crude near Sundre, Alberta, on June 7 and flowed downstream in the Red Deer river to the reservoir. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(82 of92)
Oil from a pipeline leak coats a pond near Sundre, Alta., Friday, June 8, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipeline leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of oil. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(83 of92)
Oil from a pipeline leak coats a pond near Sundre, Alta., Friday, June 8, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipeline leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of oil. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(84 of92)
Oil from a pipeline leak coats a pond near Sundre, Alta., Friday, June 8, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipeline leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of oil. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Plains Midstream Canada(85 of92)
Tracks pass through oil on the banks of the Gleniffer reservoir after a pipeline leak near Sundre, Alta., on Friday, June 8, 2012. Plains Midstream Canada says one of their non-functioning pipelines leaked between 1,000-3,000 barrels of oil. (credit:THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)
Enbrige's Athabasca pipeline(86 of92)
Approximately 1,450 barrels of oil spilled from a pumping station along Enbridge’s Athabasca pipeline in June 2012.\nThe spill occurred approximately 24 kilometres from Elk Point, Alta., a village located 200 kilometres northeast of Edmonton. (credit:(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Larry MacDougal))
Lake Wabamun(87 of92)
Wreckage from the August 3rd train derailment and subsequent oil spill is seen lining the shore of Lake Wabamun on Monday, August 8, 2005, as clean-up continues. (credit:(CP PHOTO - Tim Smith))
Lake Wabamun(88 of92)
Wreckage and black oil from the August 3rd train derailment and subsequent oil spill are seen lining the shore and waters of Lake Wabamun on Monday, August 8, 2005, as clean-up continues. (credit:(CP PHOTO - Tim Smith))
Lake Wabamun(89 of92)
White absorbent boom is seen lining the shores of Lake Wabamun, Alberta, as the clean-up effort from the August 3rd train derailment and subsequent oil spill continues on Monday, August 8, 2005. (credit:(CP PHOTO - Tim Smith))
Lake Wabamun(90 of92)
Wreckage and black oil from the August 3rd train derailment and subsequent oil spill are seen lining the shore and waters of Lake Wabamun on Monday, August 8, 2005, as clean-up continues. (credit:(CP PHOTO - Tim Smith))
Lake Wabamun(91 of92)
Wreckage and black oil from the August 3rd train derailment and subsequent oil spill are seen lining the shore and waters of Lake Wabamun on Monday, August 8, 2005, as clean-up continues. Lake Wabamun was severely polluted when a train carrying heavy oil derailed on August 3, 2005, spilling much of it\'s load into the lake. (credit:(CP PHOTO - Tim Smith))
Lake Wabamun(92 of92)
Rail cars leak bunker fuel oil, meters from summer homes bordering Lake Wabamun, after a freight train derailed, in this August 3, 2005 file photo, near the town of Wabamun, Alta. Canadian National Railway faces an environmental charge stemming from the train derailment and oil spill at a popular Alberta lake last summer. (credit:(CP PICTURE ARCHIVE/ John Ulan))