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アラブの春においてチュニジアだけがうまくいく理由は？
チュニジア制憲議会は1月26日、基本的人権の尊重、表現や信教の自由、男女平等を認めた民主的な内容の新憲法を承認した。2011年に始まったアラブの春と呼ばれる一連の民主化運動は、多くが頓挫しているが、唯一チュニジアだけが民主化のプロセスに成功しつつある。
チュニジアでは2011年、失業していた若者の焼身自殺をきっかけに独裁政権への抗議運動が拡大し政権が崩壊。これをきっかけにエジプトやシリアなどに民主化運動が波及し、「アラブの春」と呼ばれるようになった。
政権崩壊後は、イスラム系与党が主導する政権が発足したものの、イスラム主義的な内容に民主派が反発し、与野党の対立が続いていた。
エジプトではムバラク政権の崩壊後、大統領に就任したモルシ氏は、イスラム色の強い非民主的な憲法草案を打ち出したことで国民が反発。今度は逆に、軍部がクーデターを起こし、モルシ派を一掃するとともに民主主義者も弾圧し、軍事独裁政権に逆戻りするという混乱状態になっている。
一方、チュニジアではイスラム系の与党が民主派に譲歩し、表現の自由や男女平等といった民主的な内容を憲法に盛り込むことで対立を回避した。
イスラム諸国では、軍事独裁政権に反対する勢力は2種類ある。ひとつはイスラム色の強い保守派であり、もうひとつは民主主義者である。保守派は男女平等や表現の自由を認めておらず、グローバル経済に反対している。一方民主主義者は構造改革や価値観の多様化を進めようとしている。エジプトでは両者の対立が大きく、そこに軍部がつけ込んで、両者を再び弾圧するという構図になっている。
官僚組織を中心とした既存の国家権力に対して、伝統的価値観を重んじる保守的な層と、グローバル経済や多様な価値観を是とする民主主義者がそれぞれ対立するという構図は、広い意味では現在の日本にもあてはまるものである。
エジプトで民主化運動が頓挫する一方、チュニジアで民主化プロセスが成功しつつあるのは、両国の経済状態と大きく関係している可能性が高い。
エジプトは人口8000万人を超える大国だがチュニジアはわずか1000万人と少ない。一方エジプトの1人あたりのGDPは3000ドルだがチュニジアは4400ドルと相対的に豊かである。リゾート地が多いことやグローバル企業を積極的に誘致していることもあり、国内の雰囲気はリベラルだ。
エジプトのような大国になると、全員に民主化の恩恵を行き渡らせるのはかなり難しく、政権が交代しても不満が残りやすい。この点でチュニジアは相対的に有利な立場にある。
経済的な苦境から一部の層の保守化が進み、民主主義的な価値観との対立が起こるという図式は全世界的な傾向である。こうした対立構造は、結局、軍部や官僚組織という既得権益層の利益につながってしまう。経済成長が何よりも重要であることをチュニジアの事例は示している。
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