気温上昇は犯罪増加も招く:研究結果

アメリカの多くの地域は、2014年1月に大寒波に襲われた(日本語版記事)が、地球全体で見ると、史上4番目に暖かい1月だった。
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zoubin zarin via Getty Images

アメリカの多くの地域は、2014年1月に大寒波に襲われた(日本語版記事)が、地球全体で見ると、史上4番目に暖かい1月だった。

カリフォルニア州では、1500年代以来最悪という干ばつが続いている(日本語版記事)。また、ソチ冬季オリンピックは、摂氏12度を超える日もあるという暖かい中での開催となった。

こうしたなかで、「地球温暖化が進むにつれ、犯罪や暴力が今後大幅に増加していく」と予測する研究結果が発表された。

『ロサンゼルス・タイムズ』紙の記事によると、今回の研究は、米連邦捜査局(FBI)による「統一犯罪白書」データベースや、アメリカ海洋大気庁(NOAA)による30年間分の気象記録に加え、15におよぶ地球循環モデルから得られた気候予測を統合して分析された。その結果、2090年までに、アメリカの犯罪率は1.5%から5.5%上昇するという予測が導き出されたという。

今回の分析で特に目を惹くのは、1時間、1週間などの短い期間で気温が急上昇した場合であっても、犯罪率は上昇するとされている点だ。

環境資源経済学会による「Journal of Environmental Economics and Management」誌に、気候変動や環境問題に詳しいエコノミストであるマシュー・ランソン氏が掲載した今回の研究論文では、「2010年から2099年までの間に、殺人が2万2000件、婦女暴行が18万件、加重暴行が120万件、単純暴行が230万件、強盗が26万件、空き巣が130万件、窃盗が220万件、車両盗難が58万件」増加する可能性があると予測している。そして、それによる社会的負担は、今世紀の終わりまでで1150億ドルに達する可能性があるという。

いっぽう、2013年8月に発表された包括的研究でも、温暖化と暴力増加には相関があると指摘された(歴史データの定量分析から、「気温上昇もしくは異常降水というかたちで気候が1標準偏差変化するごとに」、個人間暴力は4%、集団間紛争は14%、発生頻度が上昇すると分析された。たとえば、平均気温2度の上昇で、集団間暴力は50%以上増加するという)。

また、国連機関「気候変動に関する政府間パネル」から漏えいした報告書案(日本語版記事)でも、温暖化とともに、戦争や飢餓、貧困、洪水、異常気象や病気などの多くの異変や災難が増加するとの予測が盛り込まれている

[Nick Visser(English) 日本語版:遠藤康子、合原弘子/ガリレオ]

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