ASSOCIATED PRESS
アルゼンチン大統領選挙は決選投票の末、マウリシオ・マクリ氏が勝利しました。
現職フェルナンデス大統領の推すブエノスアイレス州知事、ダニエル・シオリ氏は僅差で敗退しました。
マクリ氏はビジネス寄りの政策を打ち出すことを公約していることから、国際金融界から鼻つまみ者扱いされてきたアルゼンチンが見直される可能性があります。
アルゼンチンは27％近いインフレを経験しています。
同国は保護貿易主義を行ってきており、非効率で競争力に欠ける国内産業が過保護に守られています。
同国の経常収支は赤字です。
最大の貿易パートナーであるブラジルの経済が悪いので、アルゼンチンの輸出もふるいません。
同国の財政赤字はだんだん悪化しています。
政府は、民間から資産を強制収用することで国庫の足しにしてきました。
また民間企業に対する過度の指導や、人工的な価格統制をおこなってきました。
今後は、価格凍結の解除、エネルギーに対する補助金の廃止などをやる必要がありますが、抵抗があると予想されます。
同国のGDPは下のように推移しています。政府の公式発表の数字は信ぴょう性が低いです。
アルゼンチン政府の債務はGDPの42％です。
対外債務をどう返済してゆくか？ が課題になっています。期限が到来する借金は、下のようになっています。
アルゼンチンは外貨建てで沢山借金しています。それはペソ安になると返済負担が増えることを意味します。
2017年には議会選挙があり下院257議席の半数が改選になります。これも改革を阻む要因です。
（2015年11月23日「Market Hack」より転載）
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デフォルトを繰り返すアルゼンチン
Leaders of labour unions take part in a protest wi(01 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: Leaders of labour unions take part in a protest with a giant banner reading \'Basta\' (\'Enough\') before the presidential palace 29 August 2001 in Buenos Aires. Two Peronist unions summoned the protest against the economic policies of the government of President Fernando De La Rua. Mired in a three-year recession and facing default on its 128-billion-dollar public debt, Argentina has sought international help to keep its slumping economy afloat while its government adopts reforms. AFP PHOTO/Daniel Garcia (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
A protester throws a tire at a firefight(02 of33)
A protester throws a tire at a firefighter using a hose to break up a protest against the economic crisis at the Government House in Buenos Aires 06 December, 2001. The International Monetary Fund refused to release the latest 1264 billion USD aid payment. Argentina is making payments on a 132 billion USD in debt and must make at least 480 million USD in interest payments to bondholders later this month to avert a full-blown default. Argentine Economic Minister Cavallo has said \'the priority of the government will be (making) pension payments, paying salaries of the state and payments for normal functioning of the government.\' Consumer spending was down by around 70 percent 05 December due to the newly imposed 250-USD-a-week ceiling on cash withdrawals from banks, and a 1,000-USD limit per month on bank withdrawals both for individuals and companies. AFP PHOTO/Fabian GREDILLAS (Photo credit should read FABIAN GREDILLAS/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:FABIAN GREDILLAS via Getty Images)
Graffiti against Argentine Economic Mini(03 of33)
Graffiti against Argentine Economic Minister Domingo Cavallo reads, \'Cavallo assassin. Cavallo sells the nation,\' on the central branch of Bank Boston in Buenos Aires 06 December, 2001. Argentina stood at the brink of bankruptcy after the International Monetary Fund refused to release the latest 1.264 billion USD aid payment. Cavallo acknowledged that the country is negotiating with bondholders and other creditors. Argentina is making payments on a 132 billion USD in debt and must make at least 480 million USD in interest payments to bondholders later this month to avert a full-blown default. Cavallo has said \'the priority of the government will be (making) pension payments, paying salaries of the state and payments for normal functioning of the government.\' Consumer spending was down by around 70 percent 05 December due to the newly imposed 250-USD-a-week ceiling on cash withdrawals from banks, and a 1,000-USD limit per month on bank withdrawals both for individuals and companies. \nLeyendas contrarias al ministro de EconomÃa Domingo Cavallo fueron pintadas en el frente del banco Societe Generale en el centro de Buenos Aires, el 06 de diciembre de 2001, en el cuarto dia del plan economico de duros controles sobre los depositos lanzado el pasado fin de semana por el gobierno del presidente Fernando de la Rua. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
A protester vandalizes with graffiti the(04 of33)
A protester vandalizes with graffiti the doors to a branch of the Bank of Galicia in Buenos Aires 06 December, 2001. Argentina stood at the brink of bankruptcy after the International Monetary Fund refused to release the latest 1.264 billion USD aid payment. Cavallo acknowledged that the country is negotiating with bondholders and other creditors. Argentina is making payments on a 132 billion USD in debt and must make at least 480 million USD in interest payments to bondholders later this month to avert a full-blown default. Cavallo has said \'the priority of the government will be (making) pension payments, paying salaries of the state and payments for normal functioning of the government.\' Consumer spending was down by around 70 percent 05 December due to the newly imposed 250-USD-a-week ceiling on cash withdrawals from banks, and a 1,000-USD limit per month on bank withdrawals both for individuals and companies. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
Residents living at the intersection San(05 of33)
Residents living at the intersection San Martin and Juan B. Justo avenues in Buenos Aires block the streets 12 December, 2001, on the eve of a general 24-hour general strike called by the central unions to protest the economic policies of the government. \'The country is in chaos,\' said union leader Hugo Moyano, demanding the resignation of Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo. Cavallo and President Fernando de la Rua have worked to institute austerity measures aimed at staving off default on Argentina\'s massive 132-billion-USD public debt and bringing the country out of nearly four years of recession. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
A young woman beggar seeks alms wth her(06 of33)
A young woman beggar seeks alms wth her child on a street beforte a bank 18 December 2001 in Buenos Aires. Argentina, which is teetering on the brink of default on debt payments, saw its crisis deepen earlier this month when the IMF delayed a crucial disbursement of 1264 billion USD until the government imposes promised austerity measures and tax reforms. (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
Demonstrators battle tear gas as they th(07 of33)
Demonstrators battle tear gas as they throw stones at anti-riot police 19 December 2001 during protests against economic austerity measures in Cordoba, Argentina. Social disturbances hit Cordoba, Buenos Aire and other regional centers, with protesters looting stores, setting roadblocks on fire and squaring off with police in response to economic austerity measures introduced by the government in an effort to end the country\'s near four-year recession and avert a default on debt repayments. AFP PHOTO / RAIMUNDO VINUELAS (Photo credit should read RAIMUNDO VINUELAS/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:AFP via Getty Images)
Anti-riot police charge protestors 19 De(08 of33)
Anti-riot police charge protestors 19 December 2001 during protests against economic austerity measures in Cordoba, Argentina. Social disturbances hit Cordoba, Buenos Aires and other regional centers, with protesters looting stores, setting roadblocks on fire and squaring off with police in response to economic austerity measures introduced by the government in an effort to end the country\'s near four-year recession and avert a default on debt repayments. AFP PHOTO / RAIMUNDO VINUELAS (Photo credit should read RAIMUNDO VINUELAS/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:AFP via Getty Images)
Police confront demonstrators 19 Decembe(09 of33)
Police confront demonstrators 19 December 2001 in La Plata, Argentina, 60 kilometers (100 miles) south of Buenos Aires, where about 20 government workers were wounded by rubber bullets and other objects during confrontations with police over unpaid salaries, according to a local union leader Vicente Ignomiriello. Several Argentine cities were scenes of violent demonstrations against government-imposed austerity measures intended to avoid default on the South American nation\'s foreign debt. The opposition blames the De la Rua administration for showing a lack of leadership. AFP PHOTO\n (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:STR via Getty Images)
A police officer guards a branch of Banco de la Na(10 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: A police officer guards a branch of Banco de la Naci=n, whose windows where broken by demonstators 20 December 2001 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations that began 19 December left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, police said. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
Protestors wave national flags as they walk throug(11 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: Protestors wave national flags as they walk through tear gas and smoke from burning street fires set by protestors 20 December 2001 in central Buenos Aires. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations, that began 19 December and continued 20 December in defiance of a state of emergency, left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, according to police figures. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
A kneeling protestor holds up a cross to a police(12 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: A kneeling protestor holds up a cross to a police water cannon as police spray water on protestors 20 December 2001 in the Plaza de Mayo in central Buenos Aires. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations that began 19 December and spilled over into 20 December in defiance of a state of emergency left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, according to police figures. (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
A photographer helps a woman cross a tea(13 of33)
A photographer helps a woman cross a tear gas-filled street at the Plaza de Mayo in central Buenos Aires 20 December 2001 during anti-government protests. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations that began 19 December and spilled over into 20 December in defiance of a state of emergency left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, according to police figures. (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
Police fire tear gas to disperse protest(14 of33)
Police fire tear gas to disperse protestors in the Plaza de Mayo in central Buenos Aires 20 December 2001. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations that began 19 December and spilled over into 20 December in defiance of a state of emergency left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, according to police figures. AFP PHOTO/ALI BURAFI (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
An anti-government protestor fires proje(15 of33)
An anti-government protestor fires projectiles with his slingshot as demonstrations and confrontations with police escalate in central Buenos Aires 20 December 2001 during anti-government protests. Argentina plunged deeper into chaos 20 December as street protests claimed 16 lives and the government headed for collapse following its failure to remedy a chronic recession and impending debt default. Ignited by anger at government austerity measures, demonstrations that began 19 December and spilled over into 20 December in defiance of a state of emergency left 16 people dead and more than 150 injured, according to police figures. AFP PHOTO/ALI BURAFI (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
(FILE) People queue outside Argentina's(16 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: (FILE) People queue outside Argentina\'s Central Bank in Buenos Aires 31 May 2002. Argentina cancelled it\'s more than 9.5 billion dollar debt with the International Monetary Fund 03 January 2006, by using its currency reserves. The move by President Nestor Kirchner highlights the strong economic rebound in the South American nation after its unprecedented default four years ago. It also marks a rupture in years of often-tense relations between Buenos Aires and the IMF. AFP PHOTO/Ali BURAFI (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
Argentina Presidential Race Goes To The Wire(17 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA - APRIL 23: A man walks by a poster with the inscription: \'If you don\'t want Menem to win don\'t give him the chance, vote Kirchner\' April 23, 2003 in downtown Buenos Aires, Argentina. Recent polls put Nestor Kirchner just behind former President Carlos Menem in the April 27 Argentina presidential race. The two, who are both affiliated with different factions of the ruling Peronist party, are among 19 candidates vying to become the country\'s leader. Whoever wins faces formidable challenges in the wake of a meltdown of the country\'s economy in 2001, ultimately leading to a default on foreign debt. If no candidate wins 45 percent of the vote this Sunday, a second round will be held May 18 between the two top vote getters. (Photo by Quique Kierszenbaum/Getty Images) (credit:Quique Kierszenbaum via Getty Images)
Former Argentine president Carlos Menem (18 of33)
Former Argentine president Carlos Menem (R) is greeted by supporters 14 May 2003 in his hometown of La Rioja in northwest Argentina, after announcing he was quitting Argentina\'s presidential race, leaving rival Nestor Kirchner to win by default. Opinion polls showed Menem trailing more than 30 points behind Kirchner, who has governed the Patagonian state of Santa Cruz for the past 12 years and is backed by incumbent President Eduardo Duhalde. AFP PHOTO/Ali BURAFI (Photo credit should read ALI BURAFI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALI BURAFI via Getty Images)
Stock Market In Argentina Slumps A Day After Menem Calls It Quits(19 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA ? MAY 15: An Argentinean broker uses his cellular phone as he works at the Stock Market May 15, 2003 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The currency exchange market and the stock market fell a day after former president Carlos Menem announced he is quitting Argentina\'s presidential race, leaving provincial governor Nestor Kirchner to win by default. The peso fell 2.1 percent May 15 and the stock market 0.58, in what annalists said in the media is just caution after the political movements. (Photo by Quique Kierszenbaum/ Getty Images) (credit:Quique Kierszenbaum via Getty Images)
Stock Market In Argentina Slumps A Day After Menem Calls It Quits(20 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA ? MAY 15: Argentinean brokers work at the Stock Market May 15, 2003 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The currency exchange market and the stock market fell a day after former president Carlos Menem announced he is quitting Argentina\'s presidential race, leaving provincial governor Nestor Kirchner to win by default. The peso fell 2.1 percent May 15 and the stock market 0.58, in what annalists said in the media is just caution after the political movements. (Photo by Quique Kierszenbaum/ Getty Images) (credit:Quique Kierszenbaum via Getty Images)
A group of "piqueteros" -unemployed work(21 of33)
A group of \'piqueteros\' -unemployed workers, road blockers- called \'Barrios de pie\' protest against the International Money Fund (IMF) politics, in Buenos Aires, 09 September 2003. Argentina stood on the brink of a broad default today as it locked horns with the IMF over a 3.15-billion-dollar payment due by the end of the day. Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna pulled out of the World Trade Organisation conference in Mexico so he could lead the tense talks with the IMF ahead of a midnight deadline to pay. AFP PHOTO/NA ARGENTINA OUT (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:STR via Getty Images)
A member of the "Movimiento de Trabajado(22 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: A member of the \'Movimiento de Trabajadores Desocupados\' (unemployed people) shouts slogans against the International Monetary Fund, in front of the Argentinian Central Bank in Buenos Aires, 09 March 2004. Argentina faces a deadline on Tuesday to repay a loan of 3.1 billion dollars to the IMF and risked default by threatening not to pay despite attempts by the fund to keep debt talks on course for a solution. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
Members of the "Movimiento de Trabajador(23 of33)
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA: Members of the \'Movimiento de Trabajadores Desocupados\' (unemployed people) shout slogans against the International Monetary Fund, in front of the Argentinian Central Bank in Buenos Aires, 09 March 2004. Argentina faces a deadline on Tuesday to repay a loan of 3.1 billion dollars to the IMF and risked default by threatening not to pay despite attempts by the fund to keep debt talks on course for a solution. AFP PHOTO/Daniel GARCIA (Photo credit should read DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DANIEL GARCIA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY-DEMO(24 of33)
Members of Quebracho organization burn tires whie blocking 9 de Julio avenue on December 20, 2012 in Buenos Aires, during a demonstration on the 11th anniversary of the clashes that took place under the administration of former President Fernando de la Rua. The clashes took place on December 20, 2001, in the height of the Argentine economic crisis that caused the nation to default on their foreign debt. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY-DEMO(25 of33)
Members of Quebracho organization burn tires whie blocking 9 de Julio avenue on December 20, 2012 in Buenos Aires, during a demonstration on the 11th anniversary of the clashes that took place under the administration of former President Fernando de la Rua. The clashes took place on December 20, 2001, in the height of the Argentine economic crisis that caused the nation to default on their foreign debt. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY(26 of33)
A man spray paints the walls of City Hall on December 20, 2012 in Buenos Aires, during a demonstration on the 11th anniversary of the clashes that took place under the administration of former President Fernando de la Rua. The clashes took place on December 20, 2001, in the height of the Argentine economic crisis that caused the nation to default on their foreign debt. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY-DEMO(27 of33)
A man throws a stone at City Hall on December 20, 2012 in Buenos Aires, during a demonstration on the 11th anniversary of the clashes that took place under the administration of former President Fernando de la Rua. The clashes took place on December 20, 2001, in the height of the Argentine economic crisis that caused the nation to default on their foreign debt. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-FINANCE-ECONOMY-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY(28 of33)
People march along Avenida de Mayo in downtown Buenos Aires during a demonstration to mark the 12th anniversary of the Argentine crisis, when Argentina declared the biggest debt default ever, on December 20, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-FINANCE-ECONOMY-CRISIS-ANNIVERSARY(29 of33)
A member of the Socialist Workers Party (PTS) (R) fights anarchists who try to burn a fast food restaurant with a Molotov cocktail, during a demonstration in downtown Buenos Aires to mark the 12th anniversary of the Argentine crisis, when Argentina declared the biggest debt default ever, on December 20, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JUAN MABROMATA (Photo credit should read JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:JUAN MABROMATA via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-ECONOMY-DEBT-FUNDS(30 of33)
A woman passes by posters on a wall against the \'vulture funds\' in Buenos Aires on June 18, 2014. The US Supreme Court Monday rejected Argentina\'s appeals against paying at least $1.3 billion to hedge fund investors in its defaulted bonds, piling pressure on the country\'s finances. Economy Minister Axel Kicillof warned Tuesday that if Argentina implements a new US court ruling against Buenos Aires, it would push the South American nation into default. The posters read \'Enough Vultures - Argentine united in a national cause\' AFP PHOTO/ALEJANDRO PAGNI (Photo credit should read ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALEJANDRO PAGNI via Getty Images)
ARGENTINA-ECONOMY-DEBT-FUNDS(31 of33)
A man passes by posters on a wall against the \'vulture funds\' in Buenos Aires on June 18, 2014. The US Supreme Court Monday rejected Argentina\'s appeals against paying at least $1.3 billion to hedge fund investors in its defaulted bonds, piling pressure on the country\'s finances. Economy Minister Axel Kicillof warned Tuesday that if Argentina implements a new US court ruling against Buenos Aires, it would push the South American nation into default. The posters read \'Enough Vultures - Argentine united in a national cause\' AFP PHOTO/ALEJANDRO PAGNI (Photo credit should read ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ALEJANDRO PAGNI via Getty Images)
US-ARGENTINA-DEBT(32 of33)
Attornies Carmine Boccuzzi (R) and Jonathan Blackman arrive at the US Federal Courthouse July 22, 2014 in New York. US judge Thomas Griesa on Tuesday ordered Argentina and New York-based hedge funds to urgently reach a deal to avoid Buenos Aires defaulting over more than $1.3 billion in unpaid debts. Presiding over a hearing in his Manhattan courtroom, Griesa refused to grant a request from lawyers for the South American country asking that a US Supreme Court ruling be suspended. The lawyer appointed by Griesa to mediate an agreement between the two sides, Daniel Pollack, has scheduled another meeting on Wednesday to find a solution before Argentina could be forced to default on July 31.\nAFP PHOTO/Don Emmert (Photo credit should read DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DON EMMERT via Getty Images)
US-ARGENTINA-DEBT(33 of33)
Reporters crowd around Federico Thea (L), Argentina Legal and Technical Secretary Minster of the Economy, as he leaves the office building of mediator Daniel Pollack July 24, 2014 in New York. Argentina denied July 24 it was considering paying a \'guarantee\' to hedge funds demanding full payment on defaulted bonds as it held crunch talks to prevent a new default. With less than a week to go to either pay up or risk being declared in default, the Argentine government stuck to the defiant tone it has struck throughout its legal wrangling with the funds, rejecting reports that it could resolve the crisis by agreeing to pay them a guarantee at talks in New York. AFP PHOTO/Don Emmert (Photo credit should read DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:DON EMMERT via Getty Images)