ギリシャ総選挙は、世界各国にどのような影響を及ぼすのか

ギリシャは孤立する可能性が高く、債務不履行に陥ってユーロ圏から離脱し、世界中の経済や政治に影響を与える公算が高い。
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A Greek flag is seen inside a kiosk of the New Democracy party, as people walk by in Athens on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015. Weekend opinion polls showed conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' New Democracy party trailing the anti-bailout Syriza party in voter support and that a coalition government is likely to emerge from Sunday's vote. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
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ギリシャでは1月25日に総選挙が行われる。この選挙が行われるのは、議会が新大統領の選出に失敗してアントニス・サマラス首相が解散総選挙に追い込まれてからほぼ1カ月後になる。

世論調査では、急進的な左派政党の急進左翼連合(Syriza、シリザ)が第一党となる見込みだ。圧倒的過半数を獲得して連立政権を結成すれば、Syrizaの扇動的な指導者アレクシス・ツィプラス氏がさまざまな問題を抱えたギリシャの首相になると思われる。

サマラス氏の支持率は急速に下降している。2012年に政権の座に就いてから、ユーロ圏の国々・欧州中央銀行(ECB)・国際通貨基金(IMF)からなる「トロイカ」体制の債権者によって厳しい緊縮政策に晒されたからだ。

ギリシャはトロイカから2010年と2012年に総額で2400億ユーロ(約32兆円) の救済を受けており、継続している財政支援は2月に再度見直される。

最近は経済が回復しているが、失業率は26%と高いままであり、経済は今だに困難な状況にあるとイギリスの新聞「エコノミスト」は報じている。

ツィプラス氏は緊縮財政政策を厳しく批判する選挙活動を行っており、ギリシャの莫大な債務について再交渉すると断言した。しかし緊急援助を行った国、特にドイツは債務免除の交渉を拒否している。 ギリシャは孤立する可能性が高く、債務不履行に陥ってユーロ圏から離脱し、世界中の経済や政治に影響を与える公算が高い。

ギリシャの総選挙が世界各国に対して及ぼす影響を考えてみよう。

■ ユーロの歴史的瞬間

ギリシャもドイツも言動は威嚇的であるが、ギリシャがデフォルトになるよりも、両国間で合意するかどうかに関心が集まっている。

イギリスの新聞「ガーディアン」によると、総選挙が近づくにつれてツィプラス氏は欧州と対立するような発言を控えている。勝者になる確率が高いツィプラス氏は、ギリシャの債権者たちとツィプラス氏の反ユーロ的な支援者たちの間で、微妙なバランスをとりながら政権奪取後を見据えて行動している。

ツィプラス氏もドイツのアンゲラ・メルケル首相も、ギリシャはユーロに留まるべきだと主張している。もしギリシャがユーロ圏から離脱すれば、ユーロの歴史の中で最初の離脱国となる。

このような動きに対して、必ずしも他のヨーロッパ諸国が後に続こうとする訳ではない。「エコノミスト」は、「投資家たちは、イタリア・スペイン・フランスはアテネの混乱を不安まじりで注視し、恐怖におびえ、メルケル首相が命じる緊縮財政にしがみつくと確信している」と記している。

これは未熟なユーロの通貨同盟にとって、特に政治的問題を抱えてユーロ圏で景気が後退しているイタリアやスペインからすると、未知の領域へと踏み込むことになる。

■ 不安定な世界経済

2008年の金融危機から、ギリシャがデフォルト(債務不履行)に陥るかもしれないという懸念は繰り返し起こっている。ギリシャはヨーロッパの中で国内総生産に対して負債の割合が最も多い国だからだ。 エコノミストたちは、ギリシャが債務問題に悩まされている以上、赤字を抱えるその他の国も債務の支払能力が疑われ、金融市場がさらに危機的状況に陥るだろうと警告する。

しかし、ブルームバーグによると、最悪の事態はECBの保証で回避された。今日のヨーロッパは以前よりもギリシャが世界経済を揺るがす可能性が少なくなり、パニック状態になっていない。

しかしこの先の見通しがつかないのは、金融の安定にとって良いことではない。ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルは、ギリシャの経済がすでに選挙をめぐる政局の流動化で後退局面に入っていると報じている。

■ 勢いのある急進派のポピュリスト政党

ポピュリスト(大衆迎合)政党は左派も右派もヨーロッパ中で大きく勢力を伸ばしている。Syrizaの勝利でさらに弾みがつくかもしれない。

「エコノミスト」の調査部門「エコノミスト・インテリジェンス・ユニット」は、BBCで発表した調査で「2015年に選挙が予定される国々で似たような反体制派の政党が急速に勢いを増している。ギリシャの総選挙以降の波及効果が大きな影響を与えそうだ」と警告した。「反体制派の感情はユーロ圏 (EUよりも広い) で高まり、政治的崩壊・危機が加速する可能性は高い」と述べている。

反体制派の政党たちは、根本的に政治思想が異なっていても結集している。フランス極右「国民戦線」のマリーヌ・ルペン党首は、政治的な背景と移民政策が相反するにもかかわらず、極左のSyrizaを支持すると表明した

■ 急進的な外交政策?

Syrizaはまた、欧州全体から警戒されている。NATOからのギリシャ軍撤退を支持し、対ロシア制裁を批判しているからだ。

しかし、選挙に向けての準備が進む中でSyrizaは外交政策で柔軟な姿勢を見せ、重要な国内の課題に再び焦点を置いている。ブルームバーグは次のように記している。「Syrizaは革命的な野望を断念して、ギリシャの経済援助問題を包括的に改善していくという目標を優先している」。

ギリシャ総選挙
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GREECE-VOTE(30 of39)
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The leader of the Syriza leftist party Alexis Tsipras addresses supporters at an election meeting in central Athens on January 22, 2015. Greeks go to polls for general elections on January 25. AFP PHOTO / ARIS MESSINIS (Photo credit should read ARIS MESSINIS/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:ARIS MESSINIS via Getty Images)
A young boy hears Dimitris Koutsoumbas speech. SYRIZA ((31 of39)
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Greece Elections(32 of39)
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Pedestrians walk past an election kiosk of Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras\'s New Democracy party, in central Athens\' Syntagma square, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. The sign reads in Greek: \'We say the truth, we quarantee tomorrow\'. Greece goes to the polls Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 with voters given a tough choice over how to handle the countryâs staggering national debt after six years of recession badly weakened its economy. The popular left-wing Syriza party is poised to defeat conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, after campaigning on demands that other eurozone countries forgive at least half the bailout loan money received since 2010. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis) (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Greece Elections(33 of39)
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A pedestrian walks past posters of Alexis Tsipras, leader of Greece\'s Syriza left-wing main opposition party in central Athens, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. Greece goes to the polls Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 with voters given a tough choice over how to handle the countryâs staggering national debt after six years of recession badly weakened its economy. The popular Syriza party is poised to defeat conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, after campaigning on demands that other eurozone countries forgive at least half the bailout loan money received since 2010. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis) (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Greece Elections(34 of39)
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A pedestrian walks past a bus stop featuring a picture of Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, in central Athens, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. The sign reads in Greek: \'We say the truth, we quarantee tomorrow\'. Greece goes to the polls Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 with voters given a tough choice over how to handle the countryâs staggering national debt after six years of recession badly weakened its economy. The popular left-wing Syriza party is poised to defeat conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, after campaigning on demands that other eurozone countries forgive at least half the bailout loan money received since 2010. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis) (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Greece Elections(35 of39)
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The head of a polling station Evangelia Darara places the lid on a ballot box as municipal workers assemble voting booths, Athens, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras\' New Democracy party has failed so far to overcome a gap in opinion polls with the anti-bailout Syriza party ahead of the Jan. 25 general election. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris) (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Greece Elections(36 of39)
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Municipal workers assemble voting booths at a voting center in Athens, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras\' New Democracy party has failed so far to overcome a gap in opinion polls with the anti-bailout Syriza party ahead of the Jan. 25 general election. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris) (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Greek Voters Head To The Polls For The General Election(37 of39)
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Greek Voters Head To The Polls For The General Election(38 of39)
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ATHENS, GREECE - JANUARY 25: A woman casts her vote at a polling station in a school on January 25, 2015 in Athens, Greece. According to the latest opinion polls, the left-wing Syriza party are poised to defeat Prime Minister Antonis Samaras\' conservative New Democracy party in the election, which will taking place today. European leaders fear that Greece could abandon the Euro, write off some of its national debt and put an end to the country\'s austerity by renegotiating the terms of its bailout if the radical Syriza party comes to power. Greece\'s potential withdrawal from the eurozone has become known as the \'Grexit\'. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images) (credit:Matt Cardy via Getty Images)
Greek Voters Head To The Polls For The General Election(39 of39)
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ATHENS, GREECE - JANUARY 25: A woman casts her vote at a polling station in a school on January 25, 2015 in Athens, Greece. According to the latest opinion polls, the left-wing Syriza party are poised to defeat Prime Minister Antonis Samaras\' conservative New Democracy party in the election, which will taking place today. European leaders fear that Greece could abandon the Euro, write off some of its national debt and put an end to the country\'s austerity by renegotiating the terms of its bailout if the radical Syriza party comes to power. Greece\'s potential withdrawal from the eurozone has become known as the \'Grexit\'. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images) (credit:Matt Cardy via Getty Images)

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